Brexit means Brexit

Yes, more fall out from the referendum result held at the end of JUne. In fact, yesterday saw the very first month anniversary of it, and what has changed, if anything? Well, for one, we have a new Prime Minister, whose mantra is the title of this blog, but without saying with any detail, other than saying that Brexit, whatever it is, will happen. Only, not before the end of the year.

And by that we think she means the article 50 notification. We think.

Even that notification is unclear. The first clause says that the notification must be in compliance with our constitution, only Britain doesn't have one. Not a complete one, what we have is spread over all the laws of the land, dating back to the Domesday Book. The Government Lawyers maintain that the PM, Teresa May, has inherited what is called "prerogative powers", that she, or whoever is PM at the time, can take certain actions without the OK of Parliament. Both Houses of Parliament.

Yesterday, a report by The House of Lords didn't see it that way, and expects to be informed and consulted through the notification process and the negotiations afterwards.

On top of that there are up to 11 separate legal challenges to the prerogative powers, including one which has, in part, been crowdfunded by me. Most are seeking the legal process to ensure that the letter of the law is followed. But then, as most of such powers are not clearly defined, it is likely that such definition is not wanted to be spelled out, not least in a court of law. But we shall see. The first hearing is scheduled for October, and whoever wins is expected to appeal, and this will go to the Supreme Court in the end.

I think it is possible anyway, if such process is not clearly defined, then the EU could refuse to accept it it will be unclear if such notification is in accordance with our constitution (as it is).

Meanwhile, Alexander Boris de Piffle Johnson, who let us not forget is the Foreign Secretary (but in reality is the FS for all countries not in the EU) has said that Brexit with access to the European Economic Area (EEA) along with no free movement of labour is still possible. The French president, François Hollande said: "It will be a choice facing the UK – to remain in the single market and assume the free movement that goes with it, or to have another status."

A slightly watered down idea of an alternative membership of the EU, a kind of EU-lite with a little bit less access to the EEA and a little bit less freedome of movement might be mooted. But then the ghost of Tories past, John Redwood said: "The UK did not recently vote for a slightly beefed up version of Mr Cameron’s attempted renegotiation with the EU. We voted to leave, to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders."

Mrs May has also expressed the idea of a "hard" border between the Republic and Northern Ireland a non-starter, but how that would fit it with being outside the EU and a potential free-flow of movement across such a boarder has not been explained.

In the month since the vote, apart from the chaos on the stock markets and currency markets in the immediate days following it, not much has happened, not much by anybody. However, the IMF has downgraded Britain's growth for the last two quarters of the year, and next month The Bank of England is expected to step in by reducing interest rates to zero and printing more money. This might mean that banks will begin charging for being in credit, for individuals and for businesses.

Soon the price of good; oil and foodstuffs will begin to climb, as will the cost of domestic energy so much of the electricity that we produce is via imported gas. Serious choices will have to be made about spending, not only in Government departments, but on infrastructure projects like Hinkley Point and HS2. And remember this is even before article 50 is notified and the whole horse trading begins.

Only the EU has ruled out the idea that any formal or informal negotiations can begin until the 2 year article 50 have expired. As previously stated in past blogs, negotiating up to 60 trade deals, simultaneously (including with the EU) is going to take more than 2 years. Then there is the fact that the EU might emarrk on what could be described as "project pain". The EU fears its own break up, and giving Britain anything else other than unfavourable terms upon exit would be a trigger to see other countries might trying the same thing. So, making it clear that you can't get a better deal by leaving is almost certain to take place.

You would think that all of the above would be a high priority; but the UK Parliament is in recess, and so is the EU; so nothing is going to happen for at least six weeks. At least nothing official. Of course, the newspaper barons who championed Brexit are fanning the fires of publicity, to quite a laughable degree. Special praise should go to the Daily Express, owned by the non-UK tax paying Barclay Brothers who live on a small island off the coast of the slightly larger island of Sark. We mustn't let the un-elected mandarins in Brussels decide or present and future; but billionaire tax-exiles are OK. Obviously.

So, where are we? Well, if Britain does leave, then it will be a long, painful and expensive process.