Brexit: hard choices

If you read only the main stream and former Fleet Street based papers, in particular the Daily Express, you would think that leaving the EU was easy, and we could do it tomorrow. Or yesterday.

In fact they are right, with Brexit all of it is easy, as long as you don't mind settling for a dreadful deal for the UK. I mean you could go into trade negotiations, say with the US of A and agree to all their demands, sign the piece of paper and you have yourself a deal. But it would be all benfit America. A proper trade negotiations, take years, involve detailed discussions about a range of good and services, and maybe, after a decade, you might get a good deal.

Thing is, of course, if you are a country that, say, just voted to leave the EU, had deals with no other countries, would have to accept any deal on the table. And then deals would fall like toppling dominoes as other countries saw what was in the first deal and demanded at least that, if not more. All this would make either British goods and services more expensive, or imports seem cheaper. It would be bad news all round for British companies, let alone those British companies owned by either EU companies or companies from elsewhere in the world.

Why is all this important? Well, it seems there is pressure from a group of about 40 "Eurosceptic" MPs for the PM to not to bother with Article 50, but to annul the 1972 European Communities Act and just tell the EU we have left and not pay a penny more nor obey any more of their rules. Taking back control in one move!

Unfortunately, there is a small problem with that. It would be against all current trade deals and treaties with the EU, the very people that 50% of UK trade goes to, and who we would have to renegotiate new deals with. Not starting with a strong hand there, and those remaining 27 countries would not be minded to give Britain favourable deals, if a deal at all. Some of our closest European friends have already started to draw up "wish lists" of what they would like Brexit to deliver for them.

Even if the instant "hard" Brexit were possible, for the rest of the world, the rules stating that no trade negotiations with a country until it had left the EU, 2 years after triggering Article 50 would still hold. So no deals for two years, trade embargoes, tariffs and the suchlike. All round bad news. And all that stating that triggering article 50 must be in line with that country's constitution. And Britain not having a constitution, so what with seven or more legal cases going through the courts challenging the Government lawyer's belief that the PM has Royal Prerogative in the matter, until this is cleared the EU might refuse any article 50 trigger anyway.

The conservative party is, and always has been, split on Europe. The refendum and the result has meant that the lunatic fringe created to challege UKIP is now partly in charge, and trying to trigger the leaving process before everyone realises that its not so easy, and will be very expensive. How expensive: well corporate lawyers are being hired at £5,000 a day, and trade negotiators at £1,000 a day. Even for a five year negotiated exit, this will cost £5billion, and that is before you take into account the loss of jobs, taxes. And, traditionally, the Tories have been the party of big business, and what with so much of big business stating they would, if not leave, but consider leaving in the event of EU, and the City of London would not be able to be the financial capital of Europe if their banks and institutions cannot trade in the remaining 27 EU markets. Some banks and funds have already begin to apply to relocate.

And how do we know this? Well, despite the Leave campaign stating that the £350 million a week they claimed Britain pays to the EU could be spent on the EU, we are instead seeing massive further cuts being planned. And if there is to be a roll back on free movement, the NHS would face a crisis, larger than they have now, in recruiting, especially as the Government has imposed contracts on junior doctors and taken away bursaries from nurses. Where are all these staff for the so called 7 day week NHS going to come from? Like the Government has any idea!

So, will Brexit happen? Well, if Ian Duncan Smith and William Rees Mogg have their way it will be instant and very painful. They have the support of about 35 or so other MPs, but for that to happen there would have to be a vote to annul the 1972 act. Or would the PM be able to annul that? What and go over both Houses of Parliament, when the whole Brexit was supposed to be about Britain making it's own laws. An unelected PM annulling an act of Parliament without any debate? The Daily Express and the Murdoch empire are cheering them on, and not stating the negative effects. Anything could happen, at this point. I haven't thought it would happen, but if there are MPs so bat shit crazy pushing for the "hard" Brexit shows that all bets are off and any thing could happen.

One thing is for sure is that the phony or false Brexit we've had thus far is to end: Parliament is to resume soon, then it is conference season, and most importantly, Europe is back from extended holiday, and pressure will mount on Teresa May to decide what kind of deal Britain, if any, is looking for. She knows she cannot put that choice off for long, and the sceptics in her party are prepared to jump on anything less than they think they won back in June, anything else other than Leave, then the electorate will have to be explained to. And all the while the anti-immigration and Islamophobic stories keep appearing in the press, and the stark factt hat immigration has a net benefit for the UK is ignored.

Welcome to the post-fact Brexit Britain.