Brexit: Ten years on

The Brexit vote took place ten years ago, on the 23rd June 2016.

As I read my blogs for the month, I didn't mention the referendum, as I didn't think a country could be so stupid to actually vote to make itself poorer.

But it did.

I had been called away urgently back to Denmark, so couldn't vote myself, and was too late to register for a proxy. And was in the breakfast bar of the Zleep Hotel at Billund when I found out Leave had won.

I was angry then, as I'm still angry now.

Afterwards, the architects of Brexit: Cameron and Farage either resigned or stepped back. Johnson and Gove, the leaders of Leave, looked like the dogs that caught the car the morning after when pictured at the back of their big red Brexit bus, looking stunned as they now had to carry it out.

I believe it was only meant to be something to complain about, something Johnson had done most of his adult life as a journalist, making up stories about the waste in the EU, when there wasn't the amount he pretended, or that EU regulations were going to take over our life.

I talked long with friends and colleagues about it, and the one thing we agreed is that the EU itself was poor at communicating what it did, and did well. From tade negotiations to harmonisation of regulations, all done so quietly that we didn't know.

The immediate recession that was forecast, didn't happen as the assumption by the Treasury was an immediate "no deal" Brexit. Instead there was years of negotiations, endless Brexit meand Brexit statements by May, and even when Brexit did happen, there was a transition perios lasting 11 months to the end of 2020.

Instead what happened was a slow puncture in the economy. Less growth, less productivity, less external investment, and uncertainty brought on by the constant threats of no deal, and preparing for Brexits that were put back and back. It all costed money to companies and ate into profits.

According to a report in the Guardina:

"A decade later, the pound has never returned above its pre-Brexit level, hitting British holidaymakers in the pocket. From close to $1.50 against the dollar and €1.31 against the euro just after polling closed, the pound stands at $1.34 and €1.15."

"According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent Treasury watchdog, the UK is on track to suffer a 4% hit to national income over a 15-year period."

"At the decade mark, analysis by Nick Bloom, a leading British economist at Stanford university in the US, and others in a research paper for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, show that UK GDP per head is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit."

"Brexit involved erecting trade barriers, which has hit goods exports. The EU is still the UK’s largest trading partner: in 2025, exports to the bloc were worth £385bn (41% of all UK exports) and imports £474bn (49% of the total). Since the end of the EU transition period on 31 December 2020, growth in UK goods exports has slowed relative to the G7. But service exports have performed more strongly. The OBR estimates this is because the UK-EU trade and cooperation agreement Boris Johnson agreed with Brussels created more friction for goods than services. Exporters, in particular, face more red tape and border delays."

"After a shock result, no clear plan from the government or leave campaigners led to years of infighting over just what Brexit – never properly defined, and often subjective – should be in practice. Amid that political turmoil businesses froze their investment plans.

As a consequence, investment is estimated to be close to 18% lower than it would have been under remain and productivity up to 4% lower, reflecting reluctance to invest in equipment and projects due to the uncertainty."

"Britain emerged as the worst-performing country in the G7 for the pace of its recovery in workforce participation after the easing of pandemic restrictions, with rising ill-health pushing up economic inactivity – when working-age adults are neither in a job nor looking for one."

"Young people have borne the brunt of weaker participation rates, including an increase in the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (Neet) to more than a million, the highest level since 2013."

"Public support for Brexit has steadily fallen since the 52%-48% leave vote. Polling last month by YouGov shows 70% of Britons support a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining the bloc, its single market or customs union. More than two-thirds think looser ties would be a mistake. A majority – 56% – would back rejoining the bloc outright. Support to rejoin is strongest among Green and Labour voters, and weakest among backers of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, of whom 83% are opposed."

This year, deaths outnumbered births and immigration, meaning the population is falling in real terms, and with the collapse in EU citizens coming here to work, means hundreds of thousands of jobs remain unfilled. Talk is of more long term sick and disabled being forced to look for work while having their benefits cut or stopped. There have been several rounds of such checks since 2010, and it seems impossible there can be many of these who could carry out a full time job. This will instead add fear and worry to people who already have seen their living standards cut and cut again.

Another front to the long term sick is long COVID, which no one seems to be talking about, but is a real thing, and causes a wide spectrum of issues for people, meaning many just can't work, but fine, subject them to cruel interviews and stress.

The BBC has rund a couple of Brexit documentries, the first one last week interviews Johnson and Gove, where Johnson, with no sense of Irony said:

"“Brexit? It wasn’t our job to have a plan”

Making it sound as though it was someone else's job to make Brexit work, rather than them not having a plan. As a management systems auditor and change management is key to that, understanding the consequences of any decision made, and nothing should therefore be a surprise. So, before pushing Brexit, its outcomes, good and bad, should have been identified and mitigated against.

But wasn't.

Instead, David Davies was sent to negotiate a Brexit deal with the EU armed with only a savant's smile. Whereas the EU had a stack of folders and charts, and were already preparing.

And yet many who voted to Leave believe, with no evidence, that Brexit wasn't done hard enough or properly. Or that "the establishment" thwarted it, and that Nigel will sort it out.

Nigel who has gone to ground after it emerged he received a £5 million donation he forgot to register from a far eastern Bitcoin billionaire. Does that make him a man of the people?

As always, until the UK has a grown up conversation with itself about what Brexit has done, and how to improve on the issues it has caused, it will be the elephant in the room, so will never get discussed let alone fixed.