Tuesday 23rd January 2018

Just over a month on from the equinox, I am assured we have very nearly an hour extra daylight each and every day. It does mean the year is pressing on, even if each day we hardly notice it.

In other news, Mum is feeling better. We spoke on Sunday and she has lost the hoarseness in her voice, she sounded chipper, the opposite from what she was like the week before when I thought she had found something else I had thrown away, and thought do I give a fuck? In the end, she was just sick, so go figure. She still has not left the house since her return home on 6th December. But she is nearing the time. She has been given two weeks more free care, but the clock is running out of course, but it seems OK. Not much Jools and I could do about it anyway.

Tuesday was a grey and windy day, or was once it got light, and by that time we had both had a coffee, checked on world affairs and in a surprise move, I did a session on the cross trainer. And had a shower and shave, and was eating breakfast and a cuppa by five to eight. So much achieved already.

I start the working day with a meeting, catch up on tasks to be done, and then on with the rest of the stuff.

Nearly a year ago I met a friend, Rob, in Kingsdown for lunch and a chat, and what with one thing and another, time slipped by, so when we swapped mails last week, it seemed a good time to suggest we meet up again. He said the White Horse Inn, but that would mean having to get in and back to/back from DOver, so I suggested the Coastguard down in the Bay. It has been some time since I was last there, and Rob agreed, so all was set.

At twelve I put on my boots, waterproof coat and hat to set off to walk down and up Station Road, through the village to The Bay.

We have lived in St Maggies for nine years now, and we like it, but as you get nearer the sea, it does get a bit up itself.

No parking
Private road
No through road
No access to the Lighthouse

And so on.

It was a damp and grey day, but not too cold, the air full of sea mist. Easy going down Station Road, huffing and puffing up the other side, through the village to the top of Bay Road, where I would take the stepped path down.

I didn't count the steps down, but there were many, most covered in fallen leaves, and slippery as ice after the recent rain.

I was glad when I reached the bottom of the steps, but then had to walk on the road for the final 50 metres to the bay itself.

Some two years ago The Coastguard closed and was taken over by Shepherd Neame.

Truth is the previous owner had let its standards drop, the range of beers and whiskies was reduced, and on our last visit, we were only allowed one cheeseboard between the two of us.

We did not go back.

It reopened, and what with it being spring and then summer, it would always be full. We didn't go last winter, and so when Rob suggested meeting for lunch, I thought of here.

Glad I did as the place has been done up nice, the food good, but sadly with SN its mostly their own stuff, and with the horror that is Masterbrew. I made do with Bishop's Finger out of bottles and was happy enough. I can confirm the beer battered cod and chips was good and worth going down there for, as the fish was wonderfully fresh. Many thanks, Rob. My turn next.

Rob even dropped me off at the end of the street, allowing me to walk back home to do three more hours work to round off the day, before preparing dinner; more defrosted turkey and steamed vegetables.

Jools was late home, delayed by heavy traffic, meaning it was nearly eight by the time we had eaten and washed up. Where does the time go? And with football to listen to, writing to writ, the evening passes in a flash.

Wednesday in Brexitlalaland

Today, DD presented himself to the Brexit Select Committee, and there were the highlights, as reported by the Guardian:

Davis struggled with the first question from the committee chair, Hilary Benn, on whether there would be a draft legal text to make the pre-Christmas Brexit deal binding. Davis started by saying it would form part of the final agreement, but when pressed on whether parliament would get to see it, he said: “I hadn’t thought through when it would surface.”

Davis laughed off an article he wrote for Conservative Home in July 2016 that Benn quoted directly, which said: “I would expect the new prime minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners.

“So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.”

The UK is not, and was not, in a position to negotiate new trade deals until it leaves the EU. Davis said: “I think that was before I was minister. That was then, this is now.”

Britain’s innovative jams reared their head again as the SNP MP Joanna Cherry questioned Davis over UK internal market regulations. This argument, Davis said, boils down to whether you can sell jam made in Somerset in Scotland.

In fact, much of the substance of Cherry’s questioning was about whether, in taking on responsibility for regulatory alignment in Westminster, the UK government was making a power grab of competencies from devolved administrations.

The DUP MP Sammy Wilson asked if regulatory alignment would be down to a Northern Ireland administration or Westminster. Davis replied: “It’ll be a bit of both, I think.”

Davis was confident a transition agreement could be concluded in eight weeks and expected a transition period to last between 21 and 27 months. But he then said he had no meetings set up to discuss it with Michel Barnier.

Davis rebuffed a question from the Conservative MP Stephen Crabb about where money saved from EU budget contributions could be reinvested. Davis reminded the committee that he used to be director of a public company, and would have been in breach of company law if he promised a dividend without having the cash to back it up. “I don’t talk about dividends until they are delivered,” he said.

However, in May 2016, Davis gave a speech titled the economic case for Brexit, in which he said: “Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. In the highly improbable event that it will not, we can accommodate that with domestic policies using the money released by Brexit, the independence dividend.”

Davis, once again shrugging off his previous speeches and articles, said: “Basically I looked at the facts, and as the facts changed, I changed my mind.”

This declaration was immediately seized upon by supporters of reversing Brexit, people campaigning for continued membership of the single market and customs union, and those asking for a second referendum.

Conservative ministers appearing before a select committee can often expect some soft-ball questions. Not with Jacob Rees-Mogg. He asked Davis, if the UK is subject to European court of justice jurisdiction (ECJ) and paying into the EU budget on 30 March 2019, “are we not a vassal state?”

After Davis argued that accepting new rules during a transition period was not much of a worry, given that EU lawmaking was historically slow, Rees-Mogg asked: “Isn’t that a really rather weak argument?” The Tory MP posited that the EU might have an incentive to impose financial transaction taxes.

Addressing Hywel Williams, the Plaid Cymru MP for Arfon, Davis said “I remember during the cold war that the MoD classified the number of teabags it purchased”, on the basis that the figure might give away the strength of British troops. Williams had been asking for a list of Davis’s department’s work streams.

Davis told Rees-Mogg “any idiot” who goes into a commercial negotiation trumpeting their red lines ensures these will be the minimum they can achieve. Davis claimed never to use the phrase.

However, in the House of Commons in 2014, Davis asked David Cameron: “Will the prime minister tell us his intentions as [to] bringing to this house the red-line issues that will feature in his renegotiation, and can he give us a preview of some of those issues today?”

When Stephen Timms, the Labour MP for East Ham, asked Davis about the potential parliamentary obstacles to continued ECJ oversight during a transition period, Davis prompted laughter with his assessment that “it’s all been very straightforward so far, hasn’t it?”

Davis spent the final minutes stressing that he had to get to his next appointment. Closing the session, Benn wryly observed: “If you came more frequently, the sessions might be a bit shorter.”

Meanwhile, the German Government published a report that suggested that Brexit would take much longer than the two year A50 period and the extension/transition period. Interestingly, it also reported that there were German Constitutional issues with an extension, and the German High Court might have to pass judgement. And finally, it suggests that anything beyond 2019 would require Britain to pay as if it were a full member and without the rebate. I remember a clever chap talking about Hard Remain.....

As you can see from the above, May is negotiating more with her own party than she is with the EU as she strives for a broad agreement. It is likely that any agreement on Brexit or an extension/transition would be rejected by some in her own party meaning no such deal under terms set by the Eu is possible. No ratification means no deal, and that would mean if the first phase agreement is adhered to, that Britain would keep to the rules of the SM and CU without actually being in either. This is going to run and run until May and DD will have tied themselves up in knots. And still they don't know what they want at the end of it.

The BBC let a claim regarding the Brexit Bonus, i.e. the money saved from being out of the EU pass unchallenged, as no assessment thinks Britain will be better off, even a little bit.

Monday 22nd January 2018

Monday is a rest day from Phys.

Yay.

My legs ache. But not in a bad way, although Jools has a calf strain, so can't do phys.

But for me it was a day off. Which means I could lay in bed, or laze on the sofa and not feel too guilty about it.

But it is Monday, and getting enough enthusiasm to switch the computer on gets harder week after week. Outside, the rain falls down, but it is supposed to clear up later, I hope it might so I can go out into the garden. But before then, there is work to be done.

I put the radio on quietly and tap away. Molly seems to be a little better. When you see her every day it is hard, but she seems less hunched, less in pain. Although the vet assured us she wan't in great pain, a dull ache is how he described it. I cook her a chicken breast and oce done cut it up into small pieces, mix with show shrimp, and she loved it. At least she ate it all, then went to snooze in the basket by the front window. She hasn't taken up her old habit of laying on my laptop, which I guess is a good thing.

In the late afternoon, I pack up work things and go out into the garden to prune the buddleia.I see that there is a single Dwarf Iris blooming in one of the beds. It is the most incredible colour blue, contrasted by the yellow stamen. I snap that.

And the bush is pruned to the ground, it'll bounce back. But it is good being out, and warm enough to sit on the patio and watch the garden birds feeding at the bottom of the garden. Always something to see of course.

Darkness falls, and I catch up with writing, editing, and then warm up the soup for dinner, ready for when Jools comes home.

In the evening there is Only Connect and listen to the football, where Liverpool slump to lose to Swansea who were bottom of the league.

Frontline Brexit

Why do I care so much about Brexit? Well, apart from not wanting my country or fellow Brits to be poorer and have less opportunities than I have had, Dover will be frontline Brexit, and it will be here that the first wave of chaos will strike

As I write this tonight, there is a 5 mile queue of traffic waiting to get to the port, and Jools is stuck in it, this is normal. Can happen at least one night a week, turning a 40 minute commute into one of an hour or two. In the past 25 years, as the Tunnel opened, all of the other Kent ports closed as all the traffic came through Dover because the crossing was its shortest, getting to Calais in about and hour and ten minutes. In that quarter century, the process of getting to and through the port has been more and more streamlined.

All this means that the port is operating at 90% capacity most days, meaning any holdups in the port or on the other side of the Channel, or a ferry breaks down, creates instant backlogs which quickly snake up the A20 to Folkestone and then onto the motorway. In extreme cases, "Operation Stack" is imposed, where lanes are turned into lorry parks. In the worst year, 2016, there was 14 weeks of stack and as each phase was introduced, more and more lanes of the motorway was turned over to trucks waiting, until phase IV, when there were at least two lanes of parked trucks on each carriageway, and us locals got round as best we could.

Any imposition, therefore, of anything which slows the check in and immigration checks for cars but most importantly for truck would mean queues building with no hope of seeing the end of it, if a hard border is imposed. So, my desire to stay in either or both the SM and/or CU is selfish, I don't want the town in gridlock. And yet this is what is going to happen, especially as there is zero preparation being undertaken here with Brexit day being just fourteen months away. More offices, customs sheds, recruitment of officials and guards has yet to begin. It has taken DHB nearly two years to have a multistory car park demolished. The chances of the infrastructure needed for a hard or no deal Brexit is zero. It will be chaos on legs, and like it for years, potentially.

Last autumn, the UK Government promised The City a detailed position paper on Financial Services post-Brexit. It was delayed several times before Christmas, and now seems unlikely to be published at all. Meaning many companies in The City who were waiting to see what the Government were aiming for, will now have to decide whether to stay or leave using nothing provided from the Government. This is clearly incredible, but I would suspect it was only the FT that reported this, as the rest are all full of "Isn't the Brexit Lovely" stories. There is no trade deal in the world at the moment that included financial services, which means a bespoke one would have to be created. In 6 months. If Britain knew what it wanted. Or the PM knew.

This morning, the Foreign Secretary made it known he was all for demanding an extra £6 billion a year for the NHS. Depaite the treasury and Health were not his ministerial area. In normal times, he would have been sacked for this. Mind you he could have been sacked on a weekly, sometimes daily basis, as he seems to be actively undermining Government policy. A press statement said he was "rebuked". That he voted against a motion to better fund the NHS before Christmas is a mere trifle, I'm sure.

Ian Duncan Smith accused the CBI who have spoken in favour of staying in the SM, of appeasement, like Britain tried with the Nazis. He did this in The Mail. Who once had a headline "Hoorah for the Blackshorts". You really could not make this up.

Jaguar is cutting its workforce and investment due to brexit and uncertainty.

In contrast to most of the First World economies, Britain is forecasted to stagnate further while the EU, America, Japan all will surge ahead. Wonder what the cause could be.

And all the while, the phase 1 agreement has yet to be signed off.

Sunday 21st January 2018

The end of the third week of January, and of the year. And already it seems ages since Christmas and New Year, the time off spent together at home, especially as the weekend whizzes by in a flash, but it seems we are using our free time well, and with the going out, snapping, walking, exercise and so on, not wasting time. But as ever, the realisation that on Sunday morning, half the weekend has gone and Monday is looming adds a melancholy air to what we do.

With yet more heavy rain forecast, we had to be out an about bright and early, but with another late night card sharping, I was inclined to give snapping a miss, only for Jools to ask what the plan was. She got up made a coffee, meaning we were out of the door by half eight, calling in at the garage to fill up and grab something for breakfast to eat as we drive up the A2 to Canterbury, before taking the A28 out back into the countryside past a couple of familiar orchid spots to arrive at Godmersham.

This winter has been Britain and the near continent invaded by a rare bird, Hawfinch, and a colony of them had made their home in the churchyard at Godmersham, so why not try to see the little buggers as they had been there best part of a week? All I knew was that they have a larger beak than other finches, the rest I was hoping for luck.

There were two twitchers there already, or what turned out to be newbies like me, but they had seen one that morning, but with many other species flying round, trying to pick out the Hawfinch from the others was going to be difficult.

Especially when not just the Hawfinches liked to make a snack from the many yew trees, but Chaffinches, Goldfinches, various Tits and even Goldcrests did too. And as ever I reminded that snapping birds needs serious glass, I have a 400mm zoom, but really one double that is needed to make the birds appear large in the view finder. But hope springs eternal, and in the cool crisp morning, you never know. As it happened I did get a few distant shots, not good enough to publish, other than to say we were there and saw one. Mainly I snapped other birds; Greenfinch, Goldfinch, Blue Tit, Great Tit, Robin, Goldcrest and various rooks and crows.

My friend, Mark, turned up with his wife and daughter to join in the hunt, and we had a good catch up, and I showed them round the church and the memorial to Jane Austen's brother which attracts visitors from all over the world.

A light drizzle had begun to fall, so I thought it might be the right time to go to Bossingham to try to see the Nuthatch. I guess it was a 20 minute drive and I hoped the drizzle was a passing thing, but it became clear it was set in for the day. At Canterbury we decided to skip the Nuthatch and go home instead. Rain was falling steadily, making driving less fun, so I think we made the right choice.

Back home the rain was harder, and fell the rest of the day, so no work in the garden either, just listen to the radio, do some writing, edit photographs, and generally, the day fades. Even the afternoon Prem game is missed, as, well, seems you can have too much football; who knew?

More reality and more denials

Another Brexit blog.

On Sunday, the chairman of the CBI, Confederation of British Industry, explained on one of the weekend politics shows why it wants Britain to stay in the Single Market. Later, Liz Truss refuted that saying he exciting new opportunities that Brexit would offer would outweigh the disadvantages, and said so with much more passion that she showed in her time as Lord Chancellor when the press were describing High Court Judges as enemies of the people. Imagine, telling the organisation representing British businesses what it should thing? And anyway this should be news to Truss or any Government Ministers as surely they had been in constant engagement with Business to get its feedback and experience on what would be best for them and the country. That would show up in the sector analysis, but, oh year, DD was supposed to have had that covered.

So, Truss says the Government will press ahead with Brexit that business does not want, a Brexit that wasn't on the referendum, which was only advisory, and which no impact analysis has been done, and they are not for changing, even if there isn't a plan and the Cabinet themselves can't agree on Brexit either.

And since M. Macron's vague words about special deal, what has been ignored by his following that up with the same line that the whole EU has been saying for 18 months or more, that there will be no cherry picking, especially when it comes to the four freedoms. Hope springs eternal, but this really is believing in unicorn stuff.

But always bear in mind that the Good Friday Agreement, GFA, demands that there should be no border between NI and Eire, and that as that border will be the only land border between UK and the EU27, that in order for the no border to happen, it has to be done in a way that not only satisfies EU rules, but must also satisfy WTO rules. And that applied to trade going both ways, as any trade that UK offers to EU it would have to do so to all other members of the WTO, so a deal and agreement is needed. And that the fallback position is that in the event of no deal being reached, UK would have complete regulatory alignment with EU rules. The EU is now putting the December agreement into legal speak, and UK will have to sign, this will be unacceptable to the hardcore Brexiteers, like the ESG and DUP, who both still want cake and eating cake, even though it is clearly impossible.

Boris also rejects calls to stay in the CU because the PM said so in Florence, and also adds that staying in CU would mean staying in the EU, not quite true, but that it would mean it would be impossible to strike independent trade deals, or of the sort Boris thinks we should be, though again he doesn't say what those deals should be or who with, but clearly he is a big fan of the US of A. So remember the tale of chlorinated chicken and how this accepting this from the US would mean the EU putting up shutters, of creating more EU red tape that you could ever think possible, and the same goes for any goods. He also says staying in the CU would mean Britain could not play a leading role in the WTO, but no one really knows what he means, other than he thinks this is just a jolly jape.

Thankfully, the internet never forgets and allows us to remind JRM that he supported a 2nd referendum back in 2011 to pass any deal that the UK might have from the EU. He is also saying that Government Policy to leave the SM and it is the job of the ESG to ensure that Government Policy is acted upon. See, May is not really negotiating with the EU, but with her own Government and party, and in the end will have to accept whatever crumbs the EU throws us. But then is still refusing to accept reality in releasing its own legal team's assessment on whether Britain could unilaterally revoke A50. Saying that as its not going to happen then there is no point in discussing it, but also is using this as an argument that will force Parliament into a Hobson's Choice on the final deal. Unless, of course, Parliament tells the PM, whoever that may be at the time, to revoke A50. As it can.

Saturday 20th January 2018

The weekend has arrived, and so we must how best to use it. But this weekend after days of cold but with unbroken sunshine, Mr weatherman tells us there were be heavy continuous rain for both Saturday and Sunday. Chances to get out will be limited, but for Mr Jelltex who has a mild case of cabin fever, he is itching to get out and take some photographs.

As ever there are the weekend chores to do: washing, shopping and cleaning. As Jools has been so tired when she gets home from work, she has not done much phys, I say I will go to Tesco whilst she does a session on the cross trainer, in what we still call Tony's bedroom.

I go round Tesco filling the trolley up; as I am in charge, there is room for wine, cider and beer. Three of the main food groups there. THere are easter eggs in stock already, in fact there have been Creme Eggs in since before Christmas. Not that I buy them, but there is a storm this week as the number of biscuits in a pack of digestives has been reduced by 5, due to Brexit. Wait until it hits to price or supply of tea which all comes through Rotterdam..... That's all I'm saying.

Back home with croissants, Jools has just finished, and ready for breakfast and another coffee. Shopping is put away, but then I have to go and do my session, then we can have breakfast. Yes, you read that right, I also did a session before coffee and breakfast, meaning that by the time we had eaten, showered and dressed it was ten and Huey time on the wireless.

Outside the rain poured down still, there was a chance it would ease up in the afternoon, in which case..... But before then, Jools went into town to have a hair cut, so I stay and do "stuff".

Jools comes back home, and after lunch I decide that whatever, I will go out to do something. I thought that two of the churches I visited early in the project needed a revist, but as it turned out, I had took four at one and never visited the other! Just as well I snapped them good then.

As the A2 leaves Dover, to the south there is a series of valley, created by seldom flowing rivers that only are seen in wet winters; these are called Winterbournes. One of the largest is the Nailbourne, that flows from Lyminge before eventually turning into the Little Stour at Littlebourne. It flows through the Elham Valley, to Bridge, all the villages thereabouts ending in bourne. It also flows through Barham, and here it overflowed a few years back, but this winter it is a dried bed again.

Just up the hill and a little further east from Barham is Kingston, and St Giles set up the valley side among some grand and gated houses. The area is plagued with do not park here signs, but outside the church that had been knocked down, so I parked there and checked the door, found the door to be unlocked.

Inside I saw a depiction of the Virgin Mary I had snapped before, but that was it, I had failed to photograph the whole church. So I got to work snapping away, and in time noticed two roof angels in the chancel beside the east window, common in East Anglia, but I don't believe I have seen them in Kent before. Anyway, I had done some snapping, but less than a mile away was another church; Bishopbourne.

Looking at my pictures of the village later, I see we never went to the church at all! Which then explains why I stood looking at St Mary not recognising it at all. Best of all were the snowdrops; there were a few at Kingston, but not out, but here there were two lush groups, just wanting to be snapped. And then there was the church.

Sadly, inside I could not get the lights to work, so it was dark and gloomy in there, but even in the semi-darkness, I saw the wonder of the mosaic tiles covering the lower third of the Chancel. It is a fine and large church, set overlooking the old village green, but these days the centre of the village is along the narrow high street around the Mermaid.

The rain hadn't really stopped, but I had snapped two new churches so near home, and on the way back to the car I snapped the snowdrops too, getting back in the car at three just as the main batch of matches were kicking off. I drove back home, one ear on the radio, getting home just as the light was really beginning to fade. Coffee and cake was the order of the day, and on the radio, Norwich slumped to a 2-1 defeat, seems like they ran out of legs, worked out from the cup game. Oh well.

At seven we go to pick up John for another evening of cards. We had ordered pizza to be delivered, so it was going to be a good night. We play for pennies, just for fun, just as well. Mind you I did scoop the jackpot last week, though was a little down last night. The pizza came at nine, and we ate them, our appetite fired by cheap red wine.

As ever it was an evening filled with joy and laughter, and Johns stories. Same time next week?