A transitional Brexit?

Yes, another day and another Brexit blog. But, things move quickly in politics, and even more in Brexit politics.

Yesterday, the Chancellor announced that there was a unified opinion on the Cabinet that a transition period of exactly three year, not a moment longer would be needed to ensure the British economy does not fall off a cliff. What this fails to mention if agreed, the falling of a cliff bit will just be delayed 36 months. But hey.

Thing is, agreeing between ministers, even if true, is one thing, getting the 27 EU national parliaments, 11 regional parliaments, the EU Parliament and the European Court of Justice to agree, will be 40 other things. And surely such suggestions are best left to actual meetings between the dim Mr Davis and that nice Mr Barnier? Just an idea of course, but then the real battle for Brexit isn't with the EU it's with the editors and owners of the various Brexit supporting daily newspapers, especially the Mail and Express.

Anyway it's all pretty much a moot point at the moment as the EU is said to be disappointed not only at the lack of progress thus far in talks, but that Britain has no position on many issues, it wasn't really in a position to trigger Article 50, but then we knew that didn't we?

One other issue may well decide on the entire Brexit question, and that is the Irish border. As explained, each and every EU 27 country gets to vote on whether to ratify the deal, if there is one, between the EU as a whole and Britain, and any one of those, plus the regional councils, governments, EU Parliament and the UCJ all vote too, and failure by any of those to ratify the deal would mean that once the calendar ticks over to March 29 2019, Britain would be out of the EU without a deal. Of course, that could be extended, stopped or cancelled, but only on the unanimous decision by the EU 27.

The UK Government's suggestion for the Irish border is electronic surveillance, but the Irish Government wants no border at all, just like it is now, and has suggested moving the border between Northern Ireland and the rump UK. It is a sensible suggestion, but on those nice DUP chaps and chapesses, who are in a supply and confidence deal with the Conservatives thus keeping May and co in power, might not think so.

In short there are two requirements for the border;

1. that there is a hard border between the EU and UK (EU rules)
2. That there is no border between the EU and UK (Irish and GB governments)

That is the problem, and solving that might make the whole Brexit problem easier to solve, but fail to deal with it, and there can't even begin to be talks about the possibility of talks.

I am asked if I think Brexit will happen, and I swing from yes to no and back again, sometimes in the same hour. That the British government and the PM in particular have been so crap, so rubbish and seem to be willfully derailing the process by their sheer ineptitude means it might not. But to stop it, the EU would have to agree, and might force a "hard remain" on UK. And what would stop the issue coming again in a few years time? I think unlike some kind of cast iron guarantee that Britain would be in for good this time, they won't stop it.

Meaning Britain will crash out of the EU with either a poor deal or no deal at all.