Frontline Brexit

There is a chain of thought, that goes like this:

If Brexit is going to happen on 29th March 2019, then there should be a lot of work going on; lorry parks, waiting areas, recruiting customs officials both here in Dover, but at all ports and along the Irish border. In fact nothing is happening, other then the new bulk freight handling terminal at Dover being behind schedule and now being refused using aggregates from the Goodwin Sands. But there is nothing being done; the roads have been "improved" in light of the bulk freight terminal; roundabout removed and replaced with traffic lights, and the reduced speed limits and traffic lights at Aycliffe. Where are the lorry parks for thousands of trucks that will be held up? Just looking at Kent POlice's Operation Stack page on the net, it seems that Manston Airport will be used, at least for port traffic.

But if the worse case scenario happens and there is a permanent operation stack, what then?

Well, for locals, not just here in Dover and Folkestone, but all those living along the M20, the mere act of going to the shops or on the school run becomes difficult, if not impossible. Indeed delivery trucks for shops and supermarkets would also get stuck in the traffic and it is likely there will be food shortages. At least to some extent.

Others might say that this is scaremongering, but once Britain diverges from EU standards, or might have trade deals with countries with different standards, origin checks on some if not all goods will have to happen at entry points into the EU; at Dover, Felixstowe, Southampton, the Irish border and so on.

It could be that there is the belief that Brexit might not happen, at least in Cabinet meaning these things will not have to be built or prepared for, or they are just hoping to do the British thing and muddle through. Or even more likely, they haven't even looked that far ahead as yet.

Meanwhile in Dover, residents in Aycliffe have been complaining about the noise from queuing trucks down the hill, so that a "no unnecessary horn" sign has been put up, and finally the temporary speed limit of 40mph have been made variable, Dovorians have been complaining about this for months since it was introduced. Quite how they will react if the semi-permanent operation stack happens, thd there will be lines of waiting freight backed up to Birmingham waiting to get through.

As with the Irish border, there are two things that have to happen regarding the border at Dover/Calais, and each one precludes the other, so fixing this is going to be interesting to say the least. The two issues are:

1. Frictionless border
2.Ensuring all goods entering the EU are within EU standards, and that point of origin paperwork checked.

As previously stated, one of the main concerns from the EU side is the divergence of standards, especially if Britain signs up to a separate trade deal with America or other countries, and there is a risk that any goods of a lower standard could be snuck through into the EU.

Whatever the eventual outcome, the effects will be felt here in Dover and along to irish border before anywhere else, and failures in this area alone would not bode well for all the other areas affected.

Away from Dover, some realism has crept into some areas of Brexit, with the acceptance, by some, that Britain will have to pay a bill to leave the EU. ALl that needs to be done is agree a formula on how to come to an actual figure, (which is the way the EU wants to do it), rather than decide on a set amount now (which is what Britain wants. Or some of it, John Redwood, Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson apart).

Be thankful perhaps, that this might well be last Brexit post for some three weeks, if not longer.