Schrodinger's Brexit

In which Brexit can and cannot exist at the same time.

Everyone knows about Boeing and Airbus as the two titans of the plane industry, but another player is Bombardier, a Canadian company, who have chosen to make the wings for their aircraft in Northern Ireland. Yesterday, in a trade dispute, the US imposed tariffs on Bombardier of 220% because they could, and because the US is bigger than Canada, they can get away with it. Thousands and thousands of jobs in NI are depending on Bombardier. And the lesson for Brexit is? Well, Our glorious leader, Mrs May has put faith in the US to replace the EU as our primary trading partner.

All this despite Trump saying all through his election campaign that he wanted to revisit and renegotiate all trade deals that had the US at a disadvantage. This we knew and I wrote about ad nauseum.

International trade is not nice and cosy, and is usually dictated by the larger party on their terms, hence the battles between Boeing and Airbus have largely stopped, as both the US and the SU are of the same size and can damage each other as badly. IN the case of Bombardier, disposing, or pricing a rival out of the market, even if it is against WTO rules is fair game as it means Boeing will come up smelling of roses and selling planes.

As you can see, a smaller, much smaller UK getting a trade deal with the US will therefore be on the US's terms, and demand that we import their meat and allow access to US pharmaceuticals to the NHS. Its the way of international trade, and Trump has not been shy about his protectionism. So putting our faith in the orange shitgibbon is clearly misplaced, and will end in tears, tears that will flow for decades.

So, with tariffs of 226% in the offing, and an appeal some months away, the business hangs in the balance.

And then there is the 4th round of talks between the UK and EU, which ended today. Listening to the speeches by Davis and Barnier, you would have thought they had been to different meetings, as their conclusions were so different; Davis saying progress had been made, and Barnier saying although there had been movement, not enough progress on the three basic issues, so, not good enough to allow parallel talks on trade to begin. Which is as expected, and predicted.

THere will be no more talks until next month, and in between there will be the Conservative Party Conference next week, where May's speech will be all important; will she play to the editor of the Mail and Express or to the Eu and further the case for realism? We don't know. But if last year is a guide, short term political survival is more important than the national interest, so the good work of the last week or so could be all undone. So, will she stick or twist?

So wit the idea of free trade being shown this week the illusion we all knew it was, and the EU playing hardball in repeating the mantra "sufficient progress means sufficient progress" and just to be annoying "brexit means brexit" the UK has painted itself further into a corner, and as Donald Tusk has said, the only realistic alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit at all, will the reality of the situation be admitted to?

As a final word, Theresa May said a few things today regarding the snap election: that the Tories were not prepared; well, she was the leader and called the election, if this isn't a loud enough warning regarding Brexit negotiations then I don't know what is. And that there wasn't enough debate before the election. Coming from a PM that ducked and avoided all the TV debates and also avoided any members of the public lest they speak to her, this is rich.

She also said that "creating needless barriers to trade between the EU and it's biggest market would benefit no one", and at the same time failed to see the irony in the UK leaving the largest free market in the world. And then added " you cannot have all the benefits of single market membership without its obligations", as if she has had a Damascene revelation. We have been screaming this at her for months, and yet she pushes for some kind of bespoke trade deal that is still having cake and eating it.

And finally, the TUC and CBI issued a joint statement on the status of citizenship of EU and IK nationals, mainly EU nationals, and demanding the end of using them and their lives as bargaining chips. I shall spell out how bonkers that the Trade Union Congress and the Confederation of British Industry, the unions and bosses agree on this and sign and issued the statement. How bad must things be for this to happen, and when will the Government realise they are so wrong on this. And other matters to, of course.

Still to agree on:

1. The Irish border
2. Citizenship
3. Divorce settlement.

Get these sorted and the rest might just follow. As I have said, of these three, 1. is the hardest, and probably impossible to fix, especially with the Tories propped up by the DUP.