Monday in Brexitland

It is becoming clear that as time goes on, May and her Cabinet are trying very hard to replicate the deals we currently have as being a member of the EU, to ensure that there is as little disruption as possible. Therefore, one is tempted to ask, if the aim is to replicate all these deals, then what is the point in leaving.

We are leaving because the Brexiteers have a dream to be able to trade with the rest of the world, act like some kind of free trade buccaneers, traveling the world, tying up trade deals with countries hither and thither. Only, of course, they don't have a clue what they are doing or what they want or how to go about it.

The big dream is a deal with the US. Trump is receptive, but it became clear that the US under Trump is a little less than reliable, stating that Agri will have to be a part of any deal. And now, out of the blue Trump is starting a trade war with EU and UK over tariffs on metal. And a relationship with Trump is the big plan.

International trade isn't as simple as the brexiteers make out, of course, its all about alignment. If you want to trade with the EU, as a third party, you abide by their rules, their regulations, their standards. Or you trade with the US and accept their rules, regulations and standards. To do both will mean huge amounts of red tape to prove that what you are sending to the EU is in compliance with EU rules and standards, or not. Any illusion of control is just that, an illusion. As stated in the past, you can have lots of trade and not much control. Or lots of control and not much trade. Everything is a trade off.

And the Irish Border, that is the the only land border between UK and the EU does have to be sorted. Sorted in that it is compliance with EU, WTO rules, and whatever we do on that border will have to be rolled out on all borders to all countries, unless a FTA can be agreed. May has said she does not want a hard border on Ireland, but has also ruled out being in either the SM or CU. It is a conundrum that looks impossible to answer, but Britain will have to answer it, as it is us who are leaving, and should have thought through the consequences.

May's red lines is pushing UK towards a Canada-style FTA, which is probably the minimum the Brexiteers in the ERG would accept, so explains why they were happy about her speech last week. But that means a hard border in Ireland, going against what was agreed with the EU in December, and it isn't a good thing for UK to break the promises made then, and would kill off any more talks between UK and EU, so no FTA either.

These are real and difficult choices, choices which are, for the most part, not backed up with facts or analysis, as any such information destroys any argument for Brexit, so any such reports or analysis must be trashed, questioned and denied.

It's funny in that the EU published the draft withdrawal agreement, it was the UK not taking control, but the EU. What exactly is UK trying to take control of? Borders, Money, immigration? We're not even in control of Brexit, the process we said we wanted. As said on many previous occasions, the last part of Brexit Britain was in control of was when to submit the A50 notification. From then on, it would be the EU who would call the tune, but then as the UK's side has been so badly lead by May and DD, no preparation having been done, even writing up the withdrawal agreement,it is the EU that is in control, prepared and always at least one step ahead.

And this Brexit process, between the EU and UK, was between the two closest allies, trading nations, who traded with each other using shared rules and standards; this is the easiest trade deals, after that we have to deal with aggressive potential partners, who will want to drive the best deal out of UK. Many of them will have been conducting trade talks for decades, not having something like the EU doing that for us; they will be hardened, skilled and UK will be chasing shadows. A trade deal can be agreed in minutes, just won't be a good one. Who on the UK side is experienced to conduct trade talks? Maybe we have one or two crack teams, but 750 or more will have to be conducted at the same time, where is the resources, the experience?

In the EU.

Now that UK sent the A50 notification, the EU had no duty to protect UK citizens as after two years we won't be EU citizens any more, so the EU looks after it and its citizen's rights and interests, no favours to be given, just hard-headed negotiations. The EU knows what it wants and what it is prepared to give, it is up to the UK to decide how long the farce goes on before accepting whatever terms. All movement thus far has been on the UK side, not the EU's, and that is only going to get worse.

And all the time the clock ticks on.