Monday, 9 July 2018

DD, the last of the DExEU Midnight Runners

At half past eleven last night, DD resigned as Minister of State for Brexit, or in charge of the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU).

The world kept turning.

DD is, probably a nice guy, with talents that may be hidden, but clearly Head of Brexit was something he had neither the talent or passion for.

He is a lifelong Eurosceptic, and in so one would have thought that in those long years of planning a Brexit campaign, he would have thought up some kind of plan for it, or even had more than a basic understanding of how the EU and trade works. But he didn't have that, as late as May 2016, he was tweeting that UK could sign individual trade deals with EU member states, and that the PM's first port of clal would be Berlin to get car exports under the belt as a done deal. All this despite for the last 45 years the EU negotiating trade deals for not just Germany, but all EU states, including UK.

That the EU is a rules based organisation, that allows all members to trade across all borders, without delay or costs, by all states abiding by rules and standards and the UCJ being the mediation tool to ensure that any complaints are properly resolved. The SM is based on the four freedoms, that all states agreed on, including the U; freedom of movement of labour, money, services and goods. This is the cornerstone of the EU and it is something the EU would never let a member state pick and choose from, let alone a former member now third party country.

This basic misunderstanding, beit pig ignorance or sheer stupidity, I don't know.

So getting someone with so little understanding of the EU or international trade, it was then a major mistake to put him in charge of DExEU, but he was.

And he was never ready for meetings, select committees, said documents existed then turned out they didn't, stated that the sequencing of talks would be the argument of last summer, only to capitulate to the EU before morning coffee was served.

Once the backstop solution was agreed in the December statement from the EU and UK, it painted the May and DD into a corner, which DD tried to swerve out of by saying it was only a guide. The EU rewrote the statement in legalise to ensure there was no doubt about its intention, and DD had to publically agree.

In the seven and a half months since then, there have been hundreds of hours of meeting, and yet DD has met with the EU for just four of those hours. He was a figure very much on the outside. His performances in front of the various select committees showed a man who would rather be elsewhere, someone for who scrutiny was an inconvenience, and at many times unaware what a course of action entailed.

He has been replaced Dominic Raab, which is a bit like a football club sacking Tony Pulis to bring in Sam Allardyce. He has to work to the same brief, dealing with the fact the UK has painted itself into a few corners, at the same time, which is remarkable.

But just as he was announced to take over, Raab found out that Number 10 wants to pare down his department, take many of the functions in house.

And it is rumoured that a "no confidence" motion is being prepared by the Tory Backbenchers, which could mean a leadership contest, or election, at the same time as Brexit.

Perhaps DD's biggest mistake is thinking he had until 28th or 29th March in which to get a deal done, if you could call the Hobson's Choice it would have been a deal, but forgetting the lengthy and troublesome ratification process that the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Transition Agreement both have to go through, and be passed unanimously. If not the deal would die and the UK would leave the EU by simple operation of the calendar and the A50 2 year time limit. If any one country fails to ratify the WA of TA, then either dies, and the TA without the WA is pointless, so getting the EU on board and the member states is vital, and all DD did was insult their intelligence by showing is lack of the same.

The Government might fall tonight, tomorrow, later in the week or sometime before 29th March, but it will, then all bets are off.

But then the BBC, in particular, are painting this as a theology discussion, rather than explaining what each of the choices would cost the UK economy in jobs, investment and GDP, and the country prestige on the World stage.

In short, it took 105 weeks to unify the Cabinet, and a weekend for it to fall apart again, and this time there may be no putting the pieces back together.

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