Brexit was never about Brexit.
I think.
I have written about this on and off for several years, and this week's progress of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act has seen the Home Secretary insert 18 pages of hardline illiberal provisions, extending the right of stop and search to all, and taking away freedoms to travel and assembly meerly on a suspicion.
This was done after passage through the Lords, to to restrict any kind of deabte about what was added.
So, what we can see now, is having left the EU, our rights are now being taken away while the checks and balances on the Executive are also being removed.
The Government would rather we fixate of a migrant "crisis", so they can go about grabbing all the power they can, sidelining Parliament, the Legal System and with a pliant media, just rule, like Henry VIII would.
By the time we realise this, it will be too late, we are sleepwalking into an elected despotic state, and as Johnson's powers wane along with his popularity, thoughts turn to who would replace him. Someone more of a hardline Brexiteer, or like Patel, someone only too happy to remove any remaining right, we the population might have.
All this and going into a winter where there is very likely to be an energy crisis, food shortages, and shortages of materials for our remaining industries to eb able to function.
And on top of this, COVID is to return, with a variant 500 times as transmissible and with many more mutations, which we have yet to dicover what they will enable the pandemic to do.
It feels very, very worrying. And with little or no hope.
Friday, 26 November 2021
Thursday, 25 November 2021
Wednesday 24th November 2021
In an alternate timeline, I would be finishing work for the year on Friday, in preparation for us going to New Zealand on Wednesday. Instead, we're not.
Instead we had twenty months of plague, 166,000 deaths and much corruption and stupidity.
But, I still have a job, even if its with a different company, but the same, although no actual formal role yet, other than magician and/or miracle working.
In a surprising turn of events, I was actually ahead of schedule with work, having sent off a draft report the previous night.
There is always something to deal with, of course, and so we lurched from crisis to crisis.
Jools left for work before six again, as she is taking Friday off to go on a cooking course, which will involve me being home alone for 36 hours.
Be afraid.
Very afraid.
It was another dull and grey day here in St Maggies, and temperatures have been slowly falling each day, so the heating needed to be turned up a notch, and I decided I wouldn't be going out for a walk. The clouds were dark and low, meaning I had to have the table light on all day.
As you do.
I listened to a podcast, some music from the radio on the i player, and so the day passed slowly.
I have bereakfast.
Work.
Have lunch.
Work.
I can't tell you what I did, but it did take all day, at least until three. At which point I was going to stop and watch Only Connect, but there was a call on Teams and 40 minutes later, taking about some disaster or the other, it was nearly four, and time to pack up and prepare the batter for fritters.
But in a twist, instead of using curry poder, I used some Spanish smoked paprika, and they still came out good, had a bit of bite.
I finish off the box of red wine with it, Jools has some cider.
Yay.
Although we have macaroons, and choclate, somehow Jools had brought home custard tarts, so we had those with coffee once we had cleared away.
And another day gone, and not much achieved.
I was going to watch some footy from the championship, but was tired, so bailed at nine to go to bed.
But, I still have a job, even if its with a different company, but the same, although no actual formal role yet, other than magician and/or miracle working.
In a surprising turn of events, I was actually ahead of schedule with work, having sent off a draft report the previous night.
There is always something to deal with, of course, and so we lurched from crisis to crisis.
Jools left for work before six again, as she is taking Friday off to go on a cooking course, which will involve me being home alone for 36 hours.
Be afraid.
Very afraid.
It was another dull and grey day here in St Maggies, and temperatures have been slowly falling each day, so the heating needed to be turned up a notch, and I decided I wouldn't be going out for a walk. The clouds were dark and low, meaning I had to have the table light on all day.
As you do.I listened to a podcast, some music from the radio on the i player, and so the day passed slowly.
I have bereakfast.
Work.
Have lunch.
Work.
I can't tell you what I did, but it did take all day, at least until three. At which point I was going to stop and watch Only Connect, but there was a call on Teams and 40 minutes later, taking about some disaster or the other, it was nearly four, and time to pack up and prepare the batter for fritters.
But in a twist, instead of using curry poder, I used some Spanish smoked paprika, and they still came out good, had a bit of bite.
I finish off the box of red wine with it, Jools has some cider.
Yay.
Although we have macaroons, and choclate, somehow Jools had brought home custard tarts, so we had those with coffee once we had cleared away.
And another day gone, and not much achieved.
I was going to watch some footy from the championship, but was tired, so bailed at nine to go to bed.
B.1.1.529
Thread from Prof. Christina Pagel, I search this stuff to keep you safe.
This is not good news.
THREAD on the new variant B.1.1.529 summarising what is known from the excellent South African Ministry of Health meeting earlier today
TLDR: So much uncertain but what *is* known is extremely worrying & (in my opinion) we should revise red list immediately.
This is why: 1/16
The South African Ministry of Health had a live streamed briefing today on the new variant detected there.
The variant was identified this week and has been found in three countries so far: Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong (returning traveller). 2/16
In South Africa it has been detected in Guateng province - positivity rates in Tshwane (part of Guateng) have increased massively in the last 3 weeks from less than 1% to over 30%.
3/16
Because of this increase, COVID sequencing has been concentrated on samples from Guateng.
Almost all recent samples from there (77) have been this new variant (blue dots) - taking over from a background of Delta (red) and C.1.2 (also a concerning variant, yellow).
4/16
SA had a big Delta surge over June and July but recent rates were very very low. Most recent days have seen early surge, mainly driven by Guateng.
SA has high levels of prev infection from 3 very large waves but relatively low levels of vaccination (~24% fully vaxxed).
5/16
The bias of sequences towards Guateng means that it looks as if B.1.1.529 is rapidly taking over from Delta (red) and C.1.2 (yellow) on chart of sequenced cases - but few samples.
BUT there is one stroke of luck - it also has "S-gene dropout" like Alpha did, which means...
6/16
...that we can track it across all PCR positive cases that used a specific type of test (TaqPath). This means much better real time data.
BUT that's where the good news stops - because S-gene drop out data suggests it's rapidly increasing across S Africa.
7/16
And in a regional breakdown, you see the same vertical spike in almost all regions. This + traveller from SA case in Hong Kong suggests B.1.1.529 already widespread in SA and that other regions might follow Guateng's rise soon.
8/16
The sheer increase on these charts is very worrying and suggests that B.1.1.529 might have significant advantages over Delta and C.1.2. What exactly this advantage is and how it breaks down between immune escape and transmissibility is not yet known.
BUT
9/16
We do know that B.1.529 has many more mutations than other variants *and* has mutations seen in other variants that are associated with BOTH higher transmissibility AND immune escape.
It's the number and type of mutations that are worrying the virologists & immunologists
10/16
The SA science establishment & Ministry of Health transparency are doing *a global service* - we *cannot* underestimate how important their work and transparency are this week.
They are urgently doing lab experiments to understand it more & continuing to track spread
11/16
A new UKHSA technical briefing on variants is due tomorrow - I am sure they will at least mention this variant. WHO are meeting about it today as well.
People working in this field in England at the highest levels are very concerned
12/16
Given the speed with which this variant has spread & mutations which *might* mean signifcant vaccine escape, in my opinion the UK should get ahead of this *right now*.
As far as we know, it's not here yet.
*Adding SA and close neighbours to the red list seems sensible*
13/16
Because of UK status as international travel hub, v few restrictions in UK and the worrying signs from SA, we must act now or risk it being too late.
Regardless of travel restrictions, supporting S African response as Barrett suggests is the right thing to do.
14/16
If it's a false alarm, then we can step down response in a few weeks. But this is our window to act. As with Delta (and B.1.1.529 seems to spreading as or more quickly), waiting for certainty risks waiting too long.
15/16
Finally, this is just my opinion.
It's hopefully not here yet. We don't have definitive evidence on transmission advantage or immune escape but we have plenty of cause to suspect both.
Let's be super protective of our vaccine programme and take precautionary action.
16/16
This is not good news.
THREAD on the new variant B.1.1.529 summarising what is known from the excellent South African Ministry of Health meeting earlier today
TLDR: So much uncertain but what *is* known is extremely worrying & (in my opinion) we should revise red list immediately.
This is why: 1/16
The South African Ministry of Health had a live streamed briefing today on the new variant detected there.
The variant was identified this week and has been found in three countries so far: Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong (returning traveller). 2/16
In South Africa it has been detected in Guateng province - positivity rates in Tshwane (part of Guateng) have increased massively in the last 3 weeks from less than 1% to over 30%.
3/16
Because of this increase, COVID sequencing has been concentrated on samples from Guateng.
Almost all recent samples from there (77) have been this new variant (blue dots) - taking over from a background of Delta (red) and C.1.2 (also a concerning variant, yellow).
4/16
SA had a big Delta surge over June and July but recent rates were very very low. Most recent days have seen early surge, mainly driven by Guateng.
SA has high levels of prev infection from 3 very large waves but relatively low levels of vaccination (~24% fully vaxxed).
5/16
The bias of sequences towards Guateng means that it looks as if B.1.1.529 is rapidly taking over from Delta (red) and C.1.2 (yellow) on chart of sequenced cases - but few samples.
BUT there is one stroke of luck - it also has "S-gene dropout" like Alpha did, which means...
6/16
...that we can track it across all PCR positive cases that used a specific type of test (TaqPath). This means much better real time data.
BUT that's where the good news stops - because S-gene drop out data suggests it's rapidly increasing across S Africa.
7/16
And in a regional breakdown, you see the same vertical spike in almost all regions. This + traveller from SA case in Hong Kong suggests B.1.1.529 already widespread in SA and that other regions might follow Guateng's rise soon.
8/16
The sheer increase on these charts is very worrying and suggests that B.1.1.529 might have significant advantages over Delta and C.1.2. What exactly this advantage is and how it breaks down between immune escape and transmissibility is not yet known.
BUT
9/16
We do know that B.1.529 has many more mutations than other variants *and* has mutations seen in other variants that are associated with BOTH higher transmissibility AND immune escape.
It's the number and type of mutations that are worrying the virologists & immunologists
10/16
The SA science establishment & Ministry of Health transparency are doing *a global service* - we *cannot* underestimate how important their work and transparency are this week.
They are urgently doing lab experiments to understand it more & continuing to track spread
11/16
A new UKHSA technical briefing on variants is due tomorrow - I am sure they will at least mention this variant. WHO are meeting about it today as well.
People working in this field in England at the highest levels are very concerned
12/16
Given the speed with which this variant has spread & mutations which *might* mean signifcant vaccine escape, in my opinion the UK should get ahead of this *right now*.
As far as we know, it's not here yet.
*Adding SA and close neighbours to the red list seems sensible*
13/16
Because of UK status as international travel hub, v few restrictions in UK and the worrying signs from SA, we must act now or risk it being too late.
Regardless of travel restrictions, supporting S African response as Barrett suggests is the right thing to do.
14/16
If it's a false alarm, then we can step down response in a few weeks. But this is our window to act. As with Delta (and B.1.1.529 seems to spreading as or more quickly), waiting for certainty risks waiting too long.
15/16
Finally, this is just my opinion.
It's hopefully not here yet. We don't have definitive evidence on transmission advantage or immune escape but we have plenty of cause to suspect both.
Let's be super protective of our vaccine programme and take precautionary action.
16/16
Wednesday, 24 November 2021
Dying for a better life
Immigration is not a crime.
Yesterday, between 27 and 31, the number is not yet clear, people died when their boat deflated off the coast of Calais.
Like all tragedies, there isn't one root cause, but many
The French authorities could do more, perhaps.
If there was no war or oppression in the Middle east and beyond, peple wouldn't want to flee.
If there was a legal way for people in France to caim asulum in the UK, then they wouldn't need to cross the Channel in such boats.
As previously stated this week, the numbers of those trying to get into UK is not changed from last year, but as there are less trucks and now with enhanced checks, being a stowaway is no longer an option.
So, the only other way is people traffickers.
The traffickers sell the dream of a great life here, get the desperate to pay hundreds of dollars for a trip in boat, and leave the rest to fate.
The Government uses the situation and high visibility to bash France and the EU, and allows Pritel the chance to talk tough, so the Government actually needs the traffickers and migrants.
The amount of people coming over is a few thousand, who could make a positive contribution to the economy, and Pritel would rather you fret and get angry about migrants in boats than the rank corruption and incompitance in their gOvernment and Party.
Meanwhile 30 people died.
Don't believe their outrage, as already she is using their deaths as justification to bash France again.
She could stop this today.
Yesterday, between 27 and 31, the number is not yet clear, people died when their boat deflated off the coast of Calais.
Like all tragedies, there isn't one root cause, but many
The French authorities could do more, perhaps.
If there was no war or oppression in the Middle east and beyond, peple wouldn't want to flee.
If there was a legal way for people in France to caim asulum in the UK, then they wouldn't need to cross the Channel in such boats.
As previously stated this week, the numbers of those trying to get into UK is not changed from last year, but as there are less trucks and now with enhanced checks, being a stowaway is no longer an option.
So, the only other way is people traffickers.
The traffickers sell the dream of a great life here, get the desperate to pay hundreds of dollars for a trip in boat, and leave the rest to fate.
The Government uses the situation and high visibility to bash France and the EU, and allows Pritel the chance to talk tough, so the Government actually needs the traffickers and migrants.
The amount of people coming over is a few thousand, who could make a positive contribution to the economy, and Pritel would rather you fret and get angry about migrants in boats than the rank corruption and incompitance in their gOvernment and Party.
Meanwhile 30 people died.
Don't believe their outrage, as already she is using their deaths as justification to bash France again.
She could stop this today.
Tuesday 23rd November 2021
On this day in 1963:
JFK murdered.
Dr Who first broadcast.
Jools born.
So, lots to celebrte and think about.
Poor Jools has no chance to take the day off, but she is running out of puff for sure and is looking forward to a long weekend, and then a long break, we hope over Christmas, with a trip away once I get back from Denmark.
Today, it emerged that her boss, Andy, has blood cancer, probably, but not a serious as it sounds. There are more tests to be done, and then we shall see. But there seems no chance he'll be back at work any time soon. So, for now, she does the work of two people, just about holding production together.
I had a day of audits, or audit, to look forward to. And me being the auditor, the final one in this series, so I had to have coffee, breakfast and second breakfast before half seven, and have a meeting with a colleague.
Phew.
Then seven hours of auditing.
I know the subject now, and most of the findings are confirming what I had found previously. Some new stuff too, but good friendly people.
I was done by three, by which time too late to go out, as the thick cloud had brough dusk early. Anyway, it was jools' bitherday, and both Jen and Mike were coming for dinner, so I prepare the steak, all so it'll be perfect when cooked. Spuds are zapped in the microwave, garlic mushrooms, chopped and I check there is fizz in the fridge.
Jools and Jen arrive at just gone half five, and Mike five minutes later, so I get cooking: steaming the corn and warming the fryer for the fried potatoes. I try to time it well, with four steaks to cook, and then the potatoes and mushrooms to bring it all together.
But I do it, dish up, and take it to them sitting at the table.
We toasted Jools, and ate our fill. And then some.
Jen and I washed up, then took the birthday cake through for Jools to blow the single candle out.
Mike has to leave as he's on shift down in the port at six in the morning, and I have to take Jen home, as she don't drive at night now. So, we leave in the car, getting back at half eight with the evening having just about passed us by.
Phew.
JFK murdered.
Dr Who first broadcast.
Jools born.
So, lots to celebrte and think about.
Poor Jools has no chance to take the day off, but she is running out of puff for sure and is looking forward to a long weekend, and then a long break, we hope over Christmas, with a trip away once I get back from Denmark.
Today, it emerged that her boss, Andy, has blood cancer, probably, but not a serious as it sounds. There are more tests to be done, and then we shall see. But there seems no chance he'll be back at work any time soon. So, for now, she does the work of two people, just about holding production together.I had a day of audits, or audit, to look forward to. And me being the auditor, the final one in this series, so I had to have coffee, breakfast and second breakfast before half seven, and have a meeting with a colleague.
Phew.
Then seven hours of auditing.
I know the subject now, and most of the findings are confirming what I had found previously. Some new stuff too, but good friendly people.
I was done by three, by which time too late to go out, as the thick cloud had brough dusk early. Anyway, it was jools' bitherday, and both Jen and Mike were coming for dinner, so I prepare the steak, all so it'll be perfect when cooked. Spuds are zapped in the microwave, garlic mushrooms, chopped and I check there is fizz in the fridge.
Jools and Jen arrive at just gone half five, and Mike five minutes later, so I get cooking: steaming the corn and warming the fryer for the fried potatoes. I try to time it well, with four steaks to cook, and then the potatoes and mushrooms to bring it all together.
But I do it, dish up, and take it to them sitting at the table.We toasted Jools, and ate our fill. And then some.
Jen and I washed up, then took the birthday cake through for Jools to blow the single candle out.
Mike has to leave as he's on shift down in the port at six in the morning, and I have to take Jen home, as she don't drive at night now. So, we leave in the car, getting back at half eight with the evening having just about passed us by.
Phew.
Making a (Peppa) pig's ear of it
A week after the Government was forced to put out a statement that the it (the Government) wasn't, in fact corrupt, on Tuesday it was then forced to issue another statement stating the Prime Minister hasn't "lost his grip".
On Monday, during a speech at the CBI conference, he lost his place in his written notes, there was 20 seconds of silence as Johnson tried to refind his place, silent except for three whispered "forgive me"s.
He then tengented off describing a visit to something called Peppa Pig World, which he visited with one of his children on Sunday.
Has anyone here been he asked the meeting in Newcastle?
A few put their hands up, but then it's a six hour drive each way to the location, so few had been.
After, the BBC reporter asked if Johnson was well.
He doesn't look well. Doesn't sound well. Just stumbles on, with talk of backbencher unappiness and briefings against his to the BBC.
There have been three weeks of mistakes and mis-steps, and the chaos looks to continue into winter.
Its a dead cat bounce tactic, we're told.
Others are certainly using him to take attention away from the illiberal and anti-demcratic laws being passed through the Commons.
On Monday, during a speech at the CBI conference, he lost his place in his written notes, there was 20 seconds of silence as Johnson tried to refind his place, silent except for three whispered "forgive me"s.
He then tengented off describing a visit to something called Peppa Pig World, which he visited with one of his children on Sunday.
Has anyone here been he asked the meeting in Newcastle?
A few put their hands up, but then it's a six hour drive each way to the location, so few had been.
After, the BBC reporter asked if Johnson was well.
He doesn't look well. Doesn't sound well. Just stumbles on, with talk of backbencher unappiness and briefings against his to the BBC.
There have been three weeks of mistakes and mis-steps, and the chaos looks to continue into winter.
Its a dead cat bounce tactic, we're told.
Others are certainly using him to take attention away from the illiberal and anti-demcratic laws being passed through the Commons.
Tuesday, 23 November 2021
Monday 22nd November 2021
Aaah, Monday morning, I've been wondering when you'd show up.
And here you are, at half four in the morning, as my brain decided I should be awake. I read a chapter of the JCC book once my eyes could focus.
Here we go.
Jools is now getting very tired of the situation at work. She is coping, but working 100mph all day every day, just to stand still. She hasn't had to bring home work yet, at least for a couple of weeks, but mails are checked here at the dining room table before she gets ready, as it gives her more of a head start.
Jools showeres and gets dressed, and has left again before six, leaving me with a podcast to listen before work.
But there had been a IT incident over the weekend, and most systems were down, so not much happening as it turned out. I tried to log into various systems through the day, but was locked out, doubly so of the VPN connection.
So it goes, so it goes.
In other news, I joined in a "Secret Santa" thing on Twitter, where we buy something small for a selected stanger. I had struggled to find any clues as to what the person I had to buy for, her timeline is full of work stuff and being a young Mother. But I found something nice at the Christmas Fayre in Tunbridge Wells on Saturday, threw in two pieces of Jools' beaded crochet jewellry and a card, and Bob's you Aunt's live in lover. Or something.
That meant I had to take the packet to the post office for weighing and payment.
I put it off through the day, as I really couldn't be bothered, but once the working day was done, I decided to go out. Now, several dark clouds had swept down from the north, blown by a very stiff and cold wind, but no rain or hail had fallen, so I thought I'd be OK.
I even thought I would come back via The Dip again.
I walked down and up Station Road, past the shop to the Post Office. There was no one waiting, so I went in, had it weighed and paid, also got Jools a birthday card and a quarter of rhubarb and custards.
It was now getting very dark, not because it was evening, but because of the dark cloud approaching. And within seconds, rain began to fall, heavier with each second, so I hurried to the bus shelter to take, er, shelter, and wait it out. Which wasn't helped as the wind was blowing the rain into the shelter, my legs got wet, but the rest of me was dry.
I didn't have to wait long, as I saw some blue sky behind the cloud, and in ten minutes the rain stopped, so I could make good my escape, back down Station Road to home.
I get home damp, but with boiled sweets and a birthday card.
Which is nice.
I pack away work stuff, and begin to prepare dinner; breaded pork, curried rice and fresh steamed corn. Simple and tasty.
Jools was delayed by traffic, but got home at six, by which time dinner was all done, and it was dark outside, of course, and too cloudy to see the transit of the International Space Station past Saturn, Jupiter and Venus.
Sadly.
We eat, we clear stuff away and have coffee and listen to the radio.
Another day done.
And here you are, at half four in the morning, as my brain decided I should be awake. I read a chapter of the JCC book once my eyes could focus.
Here we go.
Jools is now getting very tired of the situation at work. She is coping, but working 100mph all day every day, just to stand still. She hasn't had to bring home work yet, at least for a couple of weeks, but mails are checked here at the dining room table before she gets ready, as it gives her more of a head start.
Jools showeres and gets dressed, and has left again before six, leaving me with a podcast to listen before work.But there had been a IT incident over the weekend, and most systems were down, so not much happening as it turned out. I tried to log into various systems through the day, but was locked out, doubly so of the VPN connection.
So it goes, so it goes.
In other news, I joined in a "Secret Santa" thing on Twitter, where we buy something small for a selected stanger. I had struggled to find any clues as to what the person I had to buy for, her timeline is full of work stuff and being a young Mother. But I found something nice at the Christmas Fayre in Tunbridge Wells on Saturday, threw in two pieces of Jools' beaded crochet jewellry and a card, and Bob's you Aunt's live in lover. Or something.
That meant I had to take the packet to the post office for weighing and payment.I put it off through the day, as I really couldn't be bothered, but once the working day was done, I decided to go out. Now, several dark clouds had swept down from the north, blown by a very stiff and cold wind, but no rain or hail had fallen, so I thought I'd be OK.
I even thought I would come back via The Dip again.
I walked down and up Station Road, past the shop to the Post Office. There was no one waiting, so I went in, had it weighed and paid, also got Jools a birthday card and a quarter of rhubarb and custards.
It was now getting very dark, not because it was evening, but because of the dark cloud approaching. And within seconds, rain began to fall, heavier with each second, so I hurried to the bus shelter to take, er, shelter, and wait it out. Which wasn't helped as the wind was blowing the rain into the shelter, my legs got wet, but the rest of me was dry.
I didn't have to wait long, as I saw some blue sky behind the cloud, and in ten minutes the rain stopped, so I could make good my escape, back down Station Road to home.I get home damp, but with boiled sweets and a birthday card.
Which is nice.
I pack away work stuff, and begin to prepare dinner; breaded pork, curried rice and fresh steamed corn. Simple and tasty.
Jools was delayed by traffic, but got home at six, by which time dinner was all done, and it was dark outside, of course, and too cloudy to see the transit of the International Space Station past Saturn, Jupiter and Venus.
Sadly.
We eat, we clear stuff away and have coffee and listen to the radio.
Another day done.
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