B Day

Next Tuesday, just after nine thirty in the morning, all of the Appeal Court judges will sit as their chairman reads their verdict.

There are no clues as to which way it will go, the Court has even refused the Government a "heads up" as to what the judgement might be, so, as the Government says, it can make contingency plans. That it finds itself in this position, is entirely it's own fault, having first failed to make the Referendum legally binding, then appealing the case when the first case they lost. Instead they could have drawn up a bill, debated it, got it through both Houses, and the job would be done.

The PM has also imposed upon herself this deadline of the 31st March for triggering Article 50; therefore, if the case is lost, or that part of it, then the Government will have 5 weeks to get a bill through. They will try to get a simple "three line" bill through, but as the PM has made it clear that the plan is to leave the Single Market, contrary to the Conservative Party Manifesto, this is not a given.

Of course, it could be worse, the Appeal Court might say what kind of bill is needed, something more than the three line one. And that makes it all the more complicated. And then there is also the chance that the devolved assemblies and Parliament might also have to be consulted and give their approval on the triggering. The SNP have already said that Scotland's view has been ignored with the leaving the Single Market and probably customs union too. And then there is Northern Ireland, that has to have an election at the beginning of March, and they might have to give their approval, difficult or impossible depending on how the vote goes.

And leaving the EU, Single Market, Customs Union might break up the union anyway. Is T. May willing to pay that cost, or hoping it will all blow over? If the Appeal Court finds in the Government's favour, then all the above is moot of course. But they are unlikely to will all parts, and unlikely to lose all parts. But either could happen.

As I have said this before, this is not about trying to stop Brexit, but to ensure it has oversight and scrutiny by Parliament, the whole point of the referendum anyway.

Today, the PM is attending some gathering in Switzerland and is lecturing that businesses must pay their way in taxes and supporting people living in the countries they operate. Quite how this sits with her assertion on Tuesday that if she dies not get her way in the negotiations, Britain will become an off-Europe tax haven, competing with the Trump-era US in offering the lowest Corporation taxes. So, tax revenues going down, and who will have to meet the difference? Let me guess.

And through the news that banks are planning to move thousands of posts to Europe once the Article 50 is triggered, Britain is open for business, apparently. And Boris claims countries are queuing up to make trade deals with Britain. Only India won't unless visa controls are slackened, and the PM doesn't want to do that, but which way will she go? And most countries won't do deals with Britain until they know what our relationship with our biggest trading partner, the EU, is. And Boris has endeared himself to our European friends by comparing punitive measures to punishment beatings Nazis did during the war.

Nice bloke.

But we shall see.

It is a mess. An omnishambles. A brexitomnishambles, and one that the Government is determined to push it though with little or no scrutiny, and the plan being getting the best deal for Britain. Which, as I have said, is to stay in the largest free trade union in the world, no?