A long weekend in polictics

THey used to say a week was a long time in politics, but a weekend is now, like forever.

Mrs May went to the Palace on Friday to confirm she would be forming a Government, after being supported by those nice people at the DUP. Tat this threatens the basic principle of the Good Friday Agreement but taking away the requirement of Westminster to be neutral, it can't be if it is a power sharing/support with one of the sides. In Northern Ireland, there has been no effective Government for months, caused by a collapse as a result of the First Minister, a DUP member, was accused of financial irregularities meaning that Sinn Fein's Deputy First Minister resigned and they declined to put up a replacement. An election was held, and this made the situation worse, extra time was given for more discussions, and then delayed because of the Westminster election.

Hope you're following this.

On 29th June, an agreement must be reached, or another election called or Westminster imposes Direct Rule. Neither a good solution, but any chance of an agreement now seems more distance than ever with the Tories in bed with the DUP.

On top of this, the status of the Northern Ireland/Irish Republic border is the prime example of what Brexit can me, made real, in that if the Republic remains in the EU and NI leaves, then there has to be a "hard" boarder. But this is also against the Good Friday Agreement. Mrs May want to leave the ECHR, but this underpins the Good Friday Agreement too. And finally, if it appears that more than 50% of Northern Irish people want the country to leave the Union with the rest of Great Britain, then a referendum must be held, and the Government has already said that it would not oppose such a move.

And then NI could rejoin the EU as part of Ireland. At least in theory. This happening, and how the Loyalists would react is another thing of course, but shows how "leaving the EU" can have all sorts of impacts, and this is just one area, almost all other aspects of life and policy will have similar, maybe not so important or fundamental issues, but still need to be overcome.

It has emerged since Friday that the election cost something like £130million, and it has been suggested that maybe that money could have been spent on something better, like the magic money tree that would pay for more nurses, of more police to help defend the country from terrorist attack. And while I'm on the subject of the election, what kind of deranged mind calls an election AFTER Article 50 have been triggered, thus wasting seven weeks of negotiating time? And in doing so, repeats the mistake of her predecessor in betting the house on winning, and not planning for losing. She has gone from have 3 years in power to deliver a 2 year process and having a Parliamentary Majority in which to drive through a poor result, into having 5 years, but no Parliamentary majority, and will have to moderate her plans for the hardest of Brexit in order to get the support she would need for ratification.

Only, both she and David Davis have said there is no change in Brexit Policy, although no costing is yet available for a "no-deal" Brexit, but Davis is working on it. That's good then.

But it gets worse, as next week the official negotiations start with the EU27, and Britain has:

1. No position
2. No lead negotiator
3. No negotiating team
4. No plans

The EU is so desperate and concerned with the lack of what it sees as preparation by Britain it is threatening to delay talks by 12 months so it knows what our position is. A reminder that all negotiations on the financial settlement and framework agreement must be completed 6 months before the March 30th 2019 deadline, to allow for ratification by Britain, the EU27, the various regional parliaments and the EU Parliament.

And now the Queen's Speech has been postponed, maybe something to do with May visiting the 1922 Committee at 17:00 today, where it is possible they won't give the new Government her backing, meaning she will have to resign, and then there could be an 8 week leadership campaign, meaning even less focus on Brexit, even as the clock carries on ticking. She has made Michael Gove DEFRA Secretary, he seems to know nothing about farming or rural affairs, and will have to steer farming from the Common Agricultural Policy funded current existence, to life outside it, where imports to the EU could be subject to 32% tariffs. Andrea Leadsom is to be Leader of the House, ensuring that all Brexit bills and legislation have the support needed to get them on the statute book. She lasted a weekend in the last Conservative Leadership contest, making a fatal mistake in her first speech.

This all looks like a story arc from The Thick of It, and when asked why things hadn't gone well for the Government in the election, it was the voters who got it wrong, not them. You really could not make this up.