Results and beyond

We woke up this morning to find a second Conservative Prime Minister had seriously gone to the polls in two years. After the serious miscalculation that brought the EU referendum result and the end to David Cameron's leadership of the country. One would have thought a second PM would not have made the same mistake twice, but seven weeks ago the Tory's lead seemed to be so large and getting bigger.

That no thought was given as to what would happen if an overall majority was lost, or worse the election lost, and coming a few days after the triggering of the Article 50, tying up the country in a needless election for weeks when it should have been preparing for the EU talks, instead it tore the country apart. And despite the huge lead, May tried everything to avoid engaging; going to factories and other places outside work times with an invited audience only to hear her words on strong leadership, avoiding debating with anyone; Corbyn, reporters, TV pundits, almost as though she was scared, and she was supposed to be the opposite, what with the negotiations beginning 11 days after the election result.

And then there was negativity, from her and the press, and this only got worse as against expectations, Labour under Corbyn closed the gap in the polls. Doubts were cast on these polls, they'd been wrong before, and would be again, no? Jon Snow tweeted that this was the first election for 30 years that the Prime Minister would not have been interviewed for Channel 4 News. So it was a surprise that on the eve of the election, the Wednesday evening that he was contacted by Number 10 offering an interview. Too little, too late.

The polls were right, Labour ate into the clear majority, and so now the Tories are in a coalition with those nice folks, the DUP; creationists, homophobic, anti-abortion and friends with the Loyalist terrorists. Nice people. The Conservatives have always been divided over Europe, that it has exploded all over again thanks to two miscalculating leaders means the party will probably split in two, might be a good thing of course. She is a dead duck, dead woman walking, who will fall once there is any hint of compromise over Europe from the hardliners in her party. She might lead for a week, a month, maybe two. But not beyond that.

Who then will take the leadership, who will want it, and what to do about Europe? Negotiations with the EU27 start in 11 days, and all must be completed in 15 months to allow for any ratification process. That three months have been wasted in a pointless election, and has seriously weakened the PM's hand on a "hard" or suicidal Brexit, a deal would have to go through both Houses for approval, she has no clear majority, and there are hints of more by-elections in the near future as some recently returned MPs think again. The Lords now will be able to challenge anything that they see as damaging in a deal, as the electorate rejected the Conservative Manifesto, and would look after the country's interest.

Support for UKIP plummeted. Mainly due to the dreadful leadership of Nuttall, but this means that "man of the people" Farrage is likely to come back; the BBC will be happy. Brexit was and always will be an monumental act of folly. An act of economic self-harm that would take decades to repair, mainly by rejoining the EU on worse terms a decade or so in the future. If they'd have us back. Brexit might yet happen, there is no clear way it can be halted, unless the EU27 says so, and we would have to ask. They could refuse. Their team is in place, they have their red lines to defend, Britain does not have a lead negotiator yet, a plan, nor even a draft of the so called "Great Repeal Bill".

It will be interesting to see what happens now, as it was going to be anyway, but anything could happen now, even the hardest of Brexits; a no deal Brexit would be very expensive and cause chaos for years. The failure of the press to persuade the electorate and their readership that Corbyn was a terrorist sympathiser means they might take a back seat, or scream louder for that hard Brext out of the control of the EU and ECJ. They might begin to do their job, to hold Government to account and tell some truths, but then, anything's possible.