One year on

A year ago, I woke up in the Zleep Hotel at Billund Airport to find that the result in the referendum went narrowly in favour of Leave. I was shocked, and thrown into turmoil as to what it would mean, and since then I have written many posts as the Brexit "strategy" of the two Governments has developed Not that there really was one. Cameron resigned the day of the result, the May took over after a poor leadership campaign, she shen filled her cabinet with some of the leading Brexiteers, including Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary. As he has insulted most leaders or their countries, what could go wrong? David Davis was made Minister for the newly formed Department for Exiting the EU, coming as the day on which Cameron resigned, Davis declared that within 100 days of the vote Britain would have secured 10 trade deals. Thus showing is total ignorance of trade rules stating that no such deals could be even talked about whilst Britain was still part of the EU, and such membership would only end after the 2 year Article 50 period. One imagines his learning curve has been steep indeed, as as Johnson's and the PM's.

At first I did not think Brexit would happen, as each day that went by it seemed to be more unlikely. And then came May's speech to the Conservative Party Conference stating Britain's so called red lines; one of which was not be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It is this body that resolves trade disputes, finding an alternative would be very difficult, especially in a two year period, doubly so as the final six moths would be given over to the ratification process within the EU27 and in Britain.

The PM and Brexiteers talked tough, said things would be easy, when anyone who looked into a small policy area such as trade rules for biscuits, revealed them to be complex. And that is just something you dunk in tea. Much more serious was things like Britain pulling out of the Atomic Engert Body, and then the Single Market and the Customs Union, none of which were really talked about, and if they were, "no one is is talking about leaving the Single Market, but refusing the free movement of people meant that you cannot be in the Single Market and not accept its four main pillars, including free movement of people. It is this free movement, or apparent free movement that the Leave Campaign used to scare people. Turns out that people can move freely in the EU, but if they don't find a job after three months they can be forced to leave,. Only, Britain decided that monitoring such movement and EU expats in Britain would be too difficult and expensive, so much easier to blame the EU for an imaginary problem that was really the British Government's fault.

As time went on, it became clear (to those that listened) that the policy was softening up people for the prospect of a "Hard Brexit" or a no deal exit. And blaming such a result on Europe, rather than a lack of clarity on Britain's part. Harder demands, with the threat of walking pout if talks did not give Britain what it wanted, really is no way to undertake trade negotiations, or say such things before they started, and served to unify Europe, to agree a joint position, and make the EU even stronger.

Whilst Britain did nothing, or as next to. And then May announced that she would trigger the Article 50 notification by the end of March, thus setting herself a needless deadline, which if she kept to it meant that Britain would be unprepared, miss it and look like a failure as a leader. And then fight, and appeal the High Court decision that she did not have the authority to trigger Article 50, but needed agreement from both Houses of Parliament. The time and money this wasted is shocking. But after losing, a short bill was passed, which the Commons then failed to add any clauses to which would have made the process of leaving any easier. So, article 50 was triggered on the 29th March, and then things began to go wrong. Here is a summary:

On the First Day of Brexit, we jeopardised the safety of our own people by using security cooperation as a bargaining chip.

On the Second Day of Brexit we undermined the sovereignty of our Parliament by planning to give law making powers to an unelected Executive.

On the Third Day of Brexit we were warned by carmakers that Brexit was "the biggest threat in a generation."

On the Fourth Day of Brexit we learned that no one believed our computer systems could cope with us leaving the Customs Union

On the Fifth Day of Brexit, and after sixty years of peace inside the EU, a former Tory Leader threatened to go to war with the Spanish.

On the Sixth Day of Brexit Spain accepted an independent Scotland could remain in the EU, rendering more likely the dissolution of the UK.

On the Seventh Day of Brexit, our PM finally admitted we could have no trade deal with our biggest export market before we leave the EU.

On the Eighth Day of Brexit, the European Parliament published its negotiating guidelines and proved German car-makers don't make EU policy.

On the Ninth Day of Brexit, we learned 'no deal' means a "distinct possibility" there will be no flights for a time between the UK and EU.

On the Tenth Day of Brexit, we learned the Remaining Member States weren't desperate for us to stay. They just want it over. 720 days to go.

On the Eleventh Day of Brexit one group of Leavers said another had betrayed the Leave vote. And proved the 52% had chosen different things.

On the Twelfth Day of Brexit it leaked we would sacrifice the environment to our need for new trade deals to replace our EU membership.

On the 13th day of Brexit we were told that Euro clearing - employing tens of thousands - could not remain in the UK.

On the 14th day of Brexit we were isolated commercially and diplomatically. Legal control, it turns out, isn't really what matters.

On the 15th day of Brexit, a leading FinTech player said at our leading FinTech event the industry should look beyond the UK. Humiliation.

On the 16th day of Brexit real wages flatlined. With wages growth trending down and inflation trending up real wages will soon fall.

On the 17th day of Brexit we learned our NHS was "reduced to begging" for staff. And that's before we restrict free movement.

On the 18th day of Brexit we learned we'd made ourselves friendless. Not one of the r27 would back our call for parallel trade negotiations.

On the 19th day of Brexit, we acknowledged the cost of losing the EU Banking and Medicines Agencies and fought to retain them. Hopelessly.

On the 20th day of Brexit, the Government floated a scheme to permit low skilled EU nationals to continue to work here if we leave the EU.

On the 21st day of Brexit - she lasted three whole weeks - it got a bit much for the PM. She broke her word and called a General Election.

And so in the time between the 19th April and the 9th June, very little was done on Brexit, only that negotiations would begin 11 days after the election. May hoped that she would get a bigger majority giving her a mandate to carry out talks, but more importantly have a healthy majority in the Commons when she came back with a Bad Deal or No Deal. At first up to a 200 seat majority was forecast, but then as in most of the things she turned her hand to, running an election campaign was done so badly, the manifesto so bad, it has since been deleted from the Conservative Party Website, that she only won a minority Government, and having to go asking the DUP to support her Government.

She ran off to the Palace to seek permission for form a Government, we were told a deal with the DUP was imminent, and that was two weeks ago. No deal as yet, and maybe there won't be a deal. And this is negotiations with just one other party, imagine what it will be like for Davis and his team with 26 more parties to deal with! That and the fact that half his Department was changed after the elction, quite how this is a good thing I don't know, but shows the chaos going on behind the scenes.

And yet our press cheers Brexit on, declaring anyone who speaks against it as a traitor or unbeliever, and that it was the people's will. That a yes/no choice on a question that could have many, dozens of answers, and the cost of choices were not, and still not known meant that this was not democracy at all, just fairy tales of sunlit uplands and cakes and eating them.

And this week, as I have said, the Brexit Bumblebees came up against the double glazing of reality, as they always were going to. With no real plan, no planning, Davis headed to Brussels for first meeting with the EU. He had said beforehand that Britain wanted parallel talks, one side on the Divorce Bill and EU and British expat rights, and trade talks on the other. This, he declared, was to be the fight of the summer, it didn't last until morning coffee break as Britain accepted the EU's agenda.

All the time, economic data has been heading south; wages stagnating, inflation up, real living standards falling, numbers of EU nurses applying for jobs down 96%, the number of apprentices down 99%, banks relocating, Farmers reporting they can't find enough migrant workers to pick soft fruit, and all the while Brexiteers and the papers say immigration is too high, even as jobs such as these go unfilled. Farmers might just manage this year, but next?

All this has happened in the past year, and much more too. Where will we be in a year? Either leaving the EU in a chaotic Brexit or staying. Nothing inbetween, there just isn't time or skill on our side to negotiate anything else. How could such a thing be sold to the people, when they realise that they had been lied to on such a grand scale? Will split the Tory part in two, Labour too, and probably the formation of a Europe-friendly middle party, while UKIP and the hard right Tory Party grind their teeth.

Much more pain will have to be endured or the country sees the ashes and pain coming if we continue down this path. And all the time, the only thing we can rely on the reality of leaving the EU and the lies of those who pursue it like some fundamental religion. For them, no facts or evidence to the contrary will convince them of their mistake, and will demonise anoy non-believer. Runner up in the last leadership campaign that saw Maybot win, on Thursday expressed the wish on Newsnight that broadcasters should be more patriotic: tractor production figures, anyone?