The Brexit Illusion

Today, the Daily Telegraph accused Jeremy Corbyn of being a Brexit Snake Oil salesman, as today he was expected to raise the possibility of staying in "a" rather than "the" CU. That the Torygraph has been peddling its own brand of Brexit Snakeoil, it is all rather rich.

And then there is the basic problem: Brexit is going to happen in just over 13 months, and in seven months. talks between the EU and UK to a withdrawal agreement need to be concluded to allow for the ratification process. A failure of this would make any transition impossible, as there would be nothing to transit to. Britain would have to decide what it wanted more; stability or leave. Leaving the EU with no agreement in place would mean crashing out on WTO terms, and these would be bad enough, trade deals with other countries would be negotiated under the cloud that UK needed a deal, and would have to accept less than ideal terms, with the US pressing the most onerous terms.

The Brexiteers failed to realise not only the annoying technical details of Brexit, but that who the UK would be negotiating with would have their economy, people, businesses to protect first, and drive the best deal for them, not for the UK. This was always the case, and from the US alone the is chlorinated chicken, milk that fails the EU specifications, hormone injected beef. And so on, and with each of these UK allows, or is forced to accept, the EU will have to, by WTO and its own laws, to drastically increase paperwork on traceability to ensure tat EU standards are met. If not, the EU would have to apply the same rules to all those trading partners falling under their "most favoured nation" status.

Nothing is ever simple, let alone as simple as Brexiteers would make you believe. Britain has only got thus far with the phase 1 negotiations after capitulating on every EU demand. The clock was always against UK, and will be ever more so with each passing day. However, the issue of the Irish Border is something that cannot be fudged, in agreeing that the border should be frictionless, UK is accepting there be some kind of CU, and yet the headbangers decry this, but how else to avoid a hard border? The EU says, rightly, that as UK is leaving, it is up to Westminster to come up with a solution that is acceptable to NI parties, the Irish Government and the EU.

If Britain does leave the EU, then it will have to either accept EU agencies, or set up their own, in hundreds of policy areas, then agree with the rest of the world on standards, inspections regimes and dispute resolutions. This will be hugely expensive, eating more and more of the imaginary Brexit Bonus that was promised on the side of a bus. That, coupled with reduced employment, exports, productivity, reduced corporation tax means that the country will be much, much poorer, and having to find, train and pay for things the EU has done for us for the price of 37p per day for each man, woman and child.

But it isn't just Tory headbangers still talking about Brexit bonus, Corbyn is too, saying how he will spend the money saved not sending to Brussels, spending it on social services or privatising utilities. No matter who is in power, the costs above will have to be met and paid for by cuts elsewhere. Corbyn did suggest that we might join a CU. Is this the first step in a reversal of policy? Or just a befuddled man talking nonsense? I don't have any faith in him, nor would I any leader put in power by a party within a party like Momentum. Corbyn and Momentum are dreaming of a socialist utopia, free of imagined EU rules they think bans state ownership of industries and transport. He has also said, over and over again and as recently as last week that Britain could not leave the EU and stay in the SM or CU, no country can. Only Norway is not a member of the EU but in the SM.

We are 20 months since the referendum, and our useless leaders still don't know what they are talking about, or if they do would rather lie.