Your weekend Brexit

We are now nearly 11 months into the 2 year A50 process, and still, the UK Government cannot decide among Cabinter what it actually is that as a country, the trade deal and relationship we might want from Brexit. And until UK decides, then there can b no real negotiations, not that there are any real negotiations, as the deal that will be voted on by Parliament will be the one the EU offers; no more, no less.

But to understand how bad things are, you have to realise there are just four choices facing May and her cabinet:

1. Revoke A50 and remain. Politically impossible
2. Norway type Economic Area agreement. Almost politically impossible though minimum financial impact
3. Canada style FTA. Politically acceptable, but economically disastrous, but not as bad as
4. No deal and trade on WTO terms. Calamitous economically, would ruin the economy and force UK to accept any trade deals, on almost whatever terms, in order to be able to trade with anyone.

May can only pick one, and not take items from one choice and mix with another. There is no deal and special bespoke deal to be agreed or negotiated, the above is it. Always has been. There is no one wrecking, or trying to derail Brexit, only those who love our country who want to save itself from a decade, or longer, depression. Brexit is going to happen by action of international law at 23:00 on 29th March 2019. All talking must end by the end of September 2018, that is, OMG 7 months time, to allow for ratification by both the UK and EU.

The EU knows this is the situation, as do many in the Conservative Party and the Cabinet, keeping up the pretence means delaying the day when reality daws ever later in the Brexit process. If May has delayed all decisions until after Easter, that leaves 5 precious months in which come up with a trade framework, if we get that far. Because next week the EU will publish the legal text based on what was agreed with the UK back in December, it was a fudge on a grand scale, as it had to be, all things to everyone, but fudging can no longer be done, and precise legal language will take away any doubt. The fudge with the Irish border was the biggest one, and the reason Brexiteers have been attacking the GFA.

It is expected that tomorrow the Labour Party will change its position on SM membership. I say expected as Corbyn is well-known to wanting the UK to leave the EU, but many people voted for Labour at the snap election in the hope of anything other than May's Brexit leadership. As the opposition, Labour is in the position of being able to evolve its Brexit policy, whereas the Government staffed by many whose life work was Brexit, had not given any thought how to actually deliver their stillborn baby in the real world. Ignoring the problems or putting them off will only work for so long, and now time is running out, May will have to decide what Brexit actually means. If not, the EU will decide for ber, based on the A50 notification letter and her own red lines.