A different view

Last Friday there was a meeting at which the EU decided there hadn't been sufficient progress with the UK in the Brexit negotiations. However, they would allow internal preparations on the next stage of talks on trade to start with the possibility of talks with Britain beginning in December.

This was a surprising switch from the previous position of "Brexit is Brexit" and "Sufficient Progress is Sufficient Progress".

In some leaked notes it was noted that it might be better to throw May something to cling onto, and to be able to present something seen as progress, if not she could be overthrown and they might have to deal with one of the headbangers who seem to desire a hard or no deal Brexit.

So, May was able to say movement had been made and the two sides were very close, whilst the EU were able to say not sufficient progress had been made, and it was up to Britain to come up with solutions not just to the financial settlement but to citizen's rights and the Irish border. It gives both sides eight weeks to bridge the gap, but lets not kid ourselves, there is a huge amount of wrangling to be done, and if just on the financial settlement, with Britain offering something in the area of £18 billion, and some countries wanting something closer to £80 billion.

As previously stated, its not what is legally owed by UK, but what are we willing to pay to get talks moving? The cost of deadlock gets ever more expensive with each passing day, but May also has to be able to present to her Party and her Ministers as having achieved something akin to a good deal.

This is not to say that the other two items; citizen's rights and the Irish border, are going to be easy. Clearly, the EU want a status quo, and so does May really, but with the referendum won on lies about immigration, anything less that kicking out all Johnny Foreigners will do, even if that means ruining the economy, because, that was the will of the people. Even though it wasn't.

And after that, the really tough talking on trade, borders and the rest has to begin. If three simple issues are going to take 8 months, assuming that they will be sorted by the end of the year, then getting trade and ALL the other issues sorted by the end of October next year to allow 6 months of ratification is wildly optimistic. And then there is the legislation that has to be steered through Parliament; and who is to do this? Andrea Leadsome, someone so incompetent she scuppered her own leadership bid in less than 24 hours.