Some Brexit realities

In order to debunk some claims and statements that have been made on potential delays and/or cancelling of the Article 50 process. Those who read these words regularly will already know this, but needs restating from time to time.

1. As said many times, the final part of Brexit Britain had control over was if and when the notification under Article 50 was made.

2. From then on, all other steps in “Brexit”, was under the control of the EU27

3. Although there has been suggestion that the word “intention” in clause 1 of A50 means that under Britain’s constitution, we could reverse the process.

4. Clause 3 makes it clear that by the unanimous agreement of the EU27 or the UCJ, the A50 process will end either with or without a deal after exactly 2 years.

5. There is nothing May, the Cabinet, Government of Parliament can do to change this. We can ask the EU27 or the UCJ to either pause of reverse the notification, but agreement is not given, and such agreement would only depend on it being in the EU27’s interests. Appeal to the UCJ is possible, but A50 is part of the highest level of EU law, and is unlikely to be reversed.

6. Even if Parliament has a vote on the final deal or no deal, and it is rejected, this would make no difference, as pausing or revoking A50 would still require agreement of the EU27.

7. There is no chance that anyone in Parliament, the Commons or Lords could “sabotage” Brexit, it will happen unless the EU27 r the UCJ says otherwise.

8. Talks on trade can only begn when the EU27 agree that “sufficient progress” has been made on the three key issues: the Irish border, financial settlement and EU/UK citizen’s rights. It is likely that progress on two of the three would not be enough, especially if the Irish Border is not agreed.

9. It is Britain that decided to leave the EU, so it should have identified issues and have solutions to these. May and the Brexiteers were told of the issues, but ignored

10. And the A50 notification sent before any issues were identified and what the ultimate goal of the talks were to be.

11. The EU27 has managed the task of being united from the first policy document in April to date. Ultimately, they have concluded that the preservation of the Single Market by protecting the four freedoms more important that trade with the UK.

12. Britain has failed to address most of the policy papers that the EU has published, instead publishing its own weeks later, that already the EU27 have rejected in their earlier paper.

13. Any deal that might be agreed has to be ratified by all EU27 and probably up to a dozen regional Parliaments, as well as the EU itself and the ECJ.

14. Any deal that is agreed has to be in compliance with EU law, hence ratification from the UCJ

15. It would not matter who was Prime Minister, May, Johnson, Leadsome, Gove, Corbyn, the above conditions and issues would still be there.

16. There is no deal that would be “better” than being part of the largest Free Trade Area in the world. There are only degrees of damage that other deals or a no deal would do to the economy, wages, jobs and inflation. 17. Brexiteers will try to blame the failure of Brexit on anything other than either themselves or Brexit itself. The EU, judges, the press, other MPs, Remoaners, “foreigners. And so on. Failure of Brexit, and its potential success depends on replacement of those who do not believe with “evangelical Brexiteers”. Say no more.

18. If Britain wanted to leave the EU, it could stop paying into the EU budget now and refusing to comply with UCJ judgements. However, under WTO rules, Britain would still be part of the EU until 29th March 2019 and so unable to even talk about the possibility of a trade deal with any other country.

19. All the above also applies to any Transition Agreement too. EU27 would all have to agree, it be in the EU’s interest and clear as to what the transition was towards. Also sufficient progress on the 3 basic issues would be needed too.

20. Britain understood the A50 process and the time limit, yet entered into it anyway, knowing that with each week that passed, it ramped up the pressure on Britain not the EU.

21. Any deal will be what the EU27 decides to offer Britain. The choice will be whether to accept this or not. A genuine Hobson’s choice.

22. Finally, there is no escaping reality. What will happen, will happen. Regardless how many times it is said that “Brexit means Brexit”, and that either German car makers of Italian Prosecco producers would push for a deal.