A Russian Brexit conundrum

I have stayed away from commenting on what has been happening in the US, because quite frankly, with the clusterfuck that is Brexit going on here, we have no kudos to be able to point an accusing finger at another country trying to screw things up the the extent that we are. However, clearly there has been collusion between Trump's team and the Russian government, evidence is out there already, from e mails to links and all this is under several investigations.

But did Russia help with the Brexiteers for the referendum?

Well, a lot of money was thrown at the various leave campaigns, and quite where it came from remains a mystery. One of the more interesting cases is where did the DUP get the half million quid they spunked in the last few weeks of the campaign? Where did Aaron Banks get his money from, and where does Cambridge Analitica fit in to Brexit and the Trump presidency? Also, leaking of mails, how come Wikileaks only targeted the Dems, who was the link man between Trump and Wikileaks? Well, none other than arch Brexiteer, Nigel Farrage, who was photographed leaving the Ecuadorian Embassy back door, where Assange is holed up trying to evade a rape rap, and when asked why he had been there, Farrage stated he could not remember. This was as he was leaving the building. Man of the people, Nigel, was the first person to be photographed with the triumphant Trump after the election last November, gloating with Trump outside his gold plated lift.

Splitting the EU would benefit Russia, as would a weakened US, which let us not forget Trump has failed to nominate the vast number of positions in Government nine months after taking office; there is no amassador to North Korea of Secretary of State. But the EU trading block, weakened would make it easier for Russia to push its weight around.

Anyway, on Thursday night May spoke at a dinner for EU Ministers begging them for help in trying to sell a deal to the UK for her. This is what strong and stable leadership looks like, and at the same time is taking back control. Today, Friday, the EU is expected to issue the obvious rejection that "sufficient progress" has been made in talks so a second front on trade cannot begin.

May has steered her Government through the difficult months of September and October; through the Florence speech and then through the Party conference season, and is still in power. Or still PM, as the Government now whips its own MPs into not voting on any motion in the Commons that it stands a chance of losing, but at the same time will not engage when such votes are lost. Her government is only kept in power by the "supply and confidence" deal with the DUP, brokered by the £1 billion payment made to Northern Ireland. And a payment that might not actually be legal, and a hearing is taking place in the next few weeks on that legality.

The DUP themselves are as mixed up as the Tories, in wanting both no border with the Republic and also wanting to leave all of the EU institutions. Meaning not having a border and having one. This is issue is still to be addressed and solved, which would make talks on trade possible.

Saying all of that, having May as PM is probably the best the Conservative Party can do, as waiting in the wings are a number of candidates, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, etc, who would happily sell out their own country's future economic stability for some short term personal political ambition. As most of these are Eton educated and ex Oxbridge monied folks, whether the economy tanks is neither here nor there to them, as their families will have money stashed away around the world. They will always be rich, it is those who are just about managing now that will suffer the most. Bank rates will rise next month, as the pound slumps further and inflation rises to over 3%, it has to. But with wage stagnation, people's incomes will be squeezed. May is introducing a cap on energy prices, a policy derided at the last but one election for being socialist, but with all energy priced in US$, the exchange rate means that all energy is getting more expensive to buy. The cap will only be temporary.

It is not too hard to look down the line 18 months hence with mortgage rates climbing, grocery prices rising too, cost of energy climbing, and massive job losses beginning to kick in, and there being no deal with the EU in place, a real depression setting in, with no chance of an improvement for a decade or more. It has been estimated that the cost of a no deal Brexit would cost the British economy £400 billion by 2030.

Think of that huge number, and what that would mean spread out between every man, woman and child. Or only those of working age.