Brexit malarkey

You may remember a recent post in which I described how the Foreign Secretary on two consecutive weekends had articles in both the Torygraph and Sun setting out his visions and “red lines” for Brexit, and that any transition period should not be a second longer than two years. He said other bollocks too, but that is not the point here, its just that here was a Minister of State, having newspaper articles advocating policies different from the one stated by the Government he serves in.

This week, for Conservative Party Chairman and writer, Grant Shapps, set out a plan to unset the Prime Minister, stating that at 30 other MPS backed the plan. Boris de Piffle Johnson had the brass kahunas to tell Shapps and co to stop with the plotting malarkey and get behind the PM. Yes, this was for real.

Now it turns out that Conservative MPs has a Whatsapp group, in which they have been giving each other a right slagging off. Of course during this, the PM herself has been saying she wants to carry on and lead the party and country to the next election, which could be before Christmas.

Seeing Johnson, Shapps and Leadsome shaping up to take over from May is like the bridge officers on the Titanic fighting as to who takes the wheel of the ship after the iceburg was stuck and the ship was sinking. To the media, and in the Brexit supporting press, you would think that nothing was going on, just a few unhappy MPs. Who were sounding off, but the reality is the party is tearing itself apart, as the Brexit religion bangs against the walls of reality. The lies that were told to win the referendum, will be shown for what they always were, there is no escaping reality of course, but the Brexiteers will do anything to blame anyone except themselves and the pure religion of Brexit. It didn’t work because you didn’t believe in it enough.

Reality is already biting in one sector: agriculture. Planning what to do with this season lambs has to be decided before the end of the year; slaughter for food or keep to produce a new generation of lambs in the spring of 2019. Now wait a minute, is’t there something else important happening in the spring of 2019? Oh yes, Britain is due to leave the EU, and unless there is a trade agreement, British agri-goods will be subject to tariffs and origin checks as happens all other such good from 3rd party countries.

Similar issues surround grains, as they can be stored for a few years, should this year’s grain crop be stored, if the market for it in 2019 will, in effect, vanish when tariffs and non-tariff barriers should come into force? These are real issues that will have to be decided this year, before Britain has decided what it wants from Brexit, what the negotiations are leading towards. Even with a transistion, there has to be a transition to somewhere, not just a holding pattern whilst Britain decides among itself what it really, really wants.

A zinger say ahhhh.

A group of countries including the US and New Zealand have refused Britain’s idea of transferring the tariff schedules Britain currently enjoys as part of the EU, and Britain just keeping those when it leaves the EU. This means that Britain will have to negotiate, from scratch, on all goods with all members of the WTO. At the same time as negotiating with the EU on its leaving deal.

Big, big job.

And then there is the Irish border issue. As you remember, in accordance with the EU rules, there has to be a hard border at the edge of the EU. And in accordance with the Good Friday agreement there has to be no border. Two extremes, and a solution to the EU, Ireland and Northern Ireland will have to be agreed as soon as possible. So far six months have passed and there has been no progress.

The one way round it might be that Northern Ireland leaves the EU with the rump of Britain, but stays inside either or both of the Customs Union or Single Market, but would remain in the United Kingdom, however the hard border would be between the island of Ireland and the rest of Britain. It is unlikely that the Government’s partners, the DUP, would accept anything that messed with Northern Ireland’s status as being part of Britain. And to make matters worse, this weekend the leader of the DUP stated that having no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic was a “red line”.

Finally, the question of whether Article 50 can be withdrawn by Britain alone has reared its head again. It centres on wording in the second clause, about the intention to leave the EU. If it is an intention, then that could be reversed. And as Britain would only leave the EU on 29th March 2019, meaning it would not have to apply using the Article 49 process. It is known the PM has taken legal advice on this, and that judgement will be crucial if a change of mind is needed. It is also likely that the EU will have had enough of Britain now, and just want to get rid of us, and the possibility of both Britain and the EU going to the UCJ to decide on the legality of the Article 50 process. If that happens a pause would be inevitable.

Of course, at some point, an end must come to Brexit; stay or leave, and which it, it is impossible to see how the two wings of the Conservative Party could ever stay in the same party, so a massive change in the political landscape could lie ahead, at the same time as the fall out from Brexit and a collapsing economy rages around their ears.

There is no escaping reality, and it is coming. Soon. And it will be brutal. Reputations will be shattered, careers will lie in ruins. But what of the country, and the people who live in it, how will we cope?