Saturday, 25 November 2017

Fake Brexit news

Friday was memorable, for the Murdock sock puppet, Michael "Pob" Gove, bemoaning the amount of fake news on social media. This is clearly because how honestly the press and most of the television media have been treating Brexit. And this coming from the man, who said, when confronted by expert analysis of how bad Brexit would be, that "people have had enough of experts". And let us not forget that he wants to be Chacellor, his wfe works for the Daily Hate Mail and he is in the pay of Murdoch. Yes, this is the state of politics in 2017 Brexitlalaland.

I will take this point to remind you that Brexit, aka the United Kingdom leaving the European Union under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, is a purely European Union legal process. Any change to this and the terms of the Article 50 process must be done under the terms of it and the European Parliament, the EU27 and the UCJ.

Talks cannot progress to the next stage of negotiations until, in the EU27's agreement, "sufficient progress" has been made in the three basic issues: money, rights and the Irish Border. Money and rights should have been the easiest of the three. Maybe agreement on the financial settlement might make the EU27 agree to move onto trade, Ireland doesn't think so, and they have the right to veto talks.

Micheal Barnier has been selected, briefed and directed by the EU27 to negotiate on their behalf. He will not go outside their direction, and reports on a regular basis to them. In the unlikely event he agrees with Britain something outside his terms of reference, a deal can be rejected by the EU27 during the ratification process.

The ratification process will take at least 6 months, meaning any deal in Brexit will have to be completed by the end of September 2018. Ten months time.

Each of the parliaments of the EU27 HAS to ratify the deal.

The EU Parliament has to ratify the deal.

The ECJ has to ratify the deal.

Failure to ratify the deal by any of the above will mean Britain exits the EU with no deal.

Whether Britain, Parliament or the British people ratify the deal is irrelevant. Brexit is under EU law, not British.

No one in Britain can stop Brexit. Only by agreement with the EU27 can it be paused, extended or stopped.

Even if trade talks begin in December, nine months to agree a trade framework, mediation process, agreement on standards, documentation and so on, is impossible to complete in nine months. It is almost certain, that even if talks go well, only the basic issues will be talked about, let alone agreed upon.

And all of the trade details would also have to be ratified as detailed above, failure to ratify in any of the above parliaments or institutions would result in no deal.

If it is proven that there was Russian interference in the referendum, this would have no effect in the referendum result, nor cause there to be a legal reason for a re-run. The referendum was advisory only, but the Government has taken it as mandatory. Brexit is taking place under a EU legal framework, the trigger was the notification sent by May on 29th March 2017.

That Britain was not ready, had not identified risks, worked out how to overcome them is purely Britain's fault. Brexit was never going to be easy or simple.

Without a bespoke deal on the Irish border, at 23:00 on 29th March 2019, a "hard" border will have to exist between the Republic and NI as a matter of EU law. For this to happen either NI will have to remain in the SM, Ireland leave either the EU or SM, Brexit be stopped, or some other deal regarding trade be agreed and ratified. NO is already "different" from the rest of Britain in that areas like abortion and, indeed, border trade.

Wanting Brexit and there to be a "frictionless" border means staying in the SM or CU. Otherwise it is impossible. Anyone telling you otherwise is either lying or doesn't know what they are talking about. Or both.

In other news the last two weeks you might have missed (and tanks to @37paday for these):

the Government wins a vote to repeal the European Communities Act (which gives effect to EU law in the UK) even though the Maybot has said EU law will apply for at least a 2 year transition after we leave.

Gov proposes legislating the day Brexit will happen even though it will happen in March 2019 automatically (unless UK & EU agree to extend it - but then UK may be stuck because legislating Brexit day may prevent the option of extending negotiations even if we want to do so).

David Davis tells the EU not to put politics above prosperity.

David David says bankers will get special free movement exemptions but Grimsby which voted 70% leave now wants an exemption for fish exports to the EU (but won't get one)

hard Brexiter John Redwood tells investors to move money from the UK to the EU

EU helps Liam Fox out by stepping into help UK on Bombardier tariff dispute

the Maybot tells Russia to stop interfering in western democracies (but no mention of the U.K. obvs)

the Government still won't release their Brexit impact assessments in contempt of Parliament. Luckily the EU has published their own which are available on their website

the Government said they don't want a hard border in Ireland but don't get that leaving the customs union means a hard border and will mess up the Good Friday Agreement

Home Affairs Committee warned that by leaving the customs union Operation Stack will happen on a bigger scale. In 2015 Kent County Council estimated it cost the economy £250m a day. The Government said the solution will be to park lorries in the middle lanes of the M20

The Maybot said positive talks were held in Brussels today but it was not immediately clear whether she was repeating her internal pep talk or had offered tangible solutions

A spokesman said on Northern Ireland there was a need for an innovative solution but did not clarify how much jam would be involved

The Maybot again warned the EU of Russian attempts to destabilise Europe ignoring the impact of Brexit and the role of Russia in that

Gove and BOJO 🤡 have combined to persuade the Maybot that we do not need regulatory convergence. They were unaware that this is not 1875 and the UK does not set global rules

The US, China and EU are the biggest markets and set the rules

Gove warned of the bad effect of social media on news and decision making but neglected to highlight his view of experts or that he is paid by Murdoch while a cabinet minister

Meanwhile the Times and Telegraph carried articles by the Legatum Institute saying we should not scrutinise Legatum but should agree with its Brexit proposals

the links between Legatum and Vote Leave are unclear but I guess we should trust a distaster capitalist funded organisation

and ignore the impact it may have had on elections and Government policy. After all the will of the people and all that

oh and to wrap up Liam Fox had another go at UK business for not exporting enough and moaning how it does not matter how many deals he does if the lazy fucks are lazy fucks

He ignored that the UK is now the 6th largest economy, exports to the EU had been growing and the EU did not stop UK business trading globally

Final thought for the weekend - if we wanted control of our borders why is the Maybot adamant there will be no hard border with the UK's only land border with the EU

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