Halfway there, brexit on a prayer

It is 505 days since the referendum, and 505 days until the end of 29th March 2019. Therefore, we should he halfway through the process of leaving the EU and all its institutions, minus the 6 months that have to be left for the ratification process.

The reality is that the PM spent nine months prevaricating on what it was Britain wanted, created some red lines, which as it turned out really restricts the kind of deal that Britain might be able to negotiate with the EU. Even as it became clear that Britain really didn't know what it wanted, she suddenly announced that the article 50 notification would be sent by the end of March, thus imposing a time limit on preparations.

Three weeks after sending in the article 50 notification, she called an election which she hoped would wipe all opposition to Brexit and so strengthen her hand, quite how was never explained. As it happened the opposite happened, her Government's majority was wiped out, and in order to stay in power her party entered into a "supply and confidence" deal with the DUP who demanded £1 billion extra funding from the money tree.

6 rounds of talks between Britain and the EU had made little, if any, progress, and today (NOv 10th) the EU put a 14 day time limit on Britain to make an acceptable financial settlement offer. And then, and only then, will the EU think about allowing further talks on trade might be allowed to begin. Agreement on sufficient progress can only take place when EU ministers have meetings, and the next one is in December, the one after that February. Meaning that each time a deadline is missed, then Britain loses two months trade negotiating time. That Britain has been negotiating with the EU since June on the 3 basic issues, and made no progress at all, means that the more difficult trade talks will never be completed even if they begin in December.

Not only does this not bode well for our relationships with Europe post Brexit, but if this is how badly we negotiate with our friends and current trading partners, then how hard will it be when the really tough talking begins with the rest of the world? Even the US is talking tough already, giving truth to the lie of taking back control.

Yesterday, the British automotive industry released their own impact assessments, and their conclusions are not good, as expected. Any delays in the supply chain or addition of tariffs quickly makes automotive manufacturing uneconomical. But of course, most of the British media did not report on that.

As ever, the stability of the political class in Britain is hardly secure; the EU would need assurances that any agreement made with Britain would be honoured by subsequent administrations. They do not have much confidence in May's Government lasting to the end of the year, let alone to March 2019. If it falls, and it would if a reshuffle is poorly handled, or of any reshuffle of her cabinet takes place, then the Party will spit. ANd then there will have to be an election. Again, and one with what Brexit actually means one would hope The Labour Party is little help as they have backed the Government thus far, and has not said if it's position could change.

Britain's position on Brexit has little room for manoeuvre, so in order to remove any doubt, May announced today that the leave date of 29th March 2019 would be in the ext bill, thus making any wiggle room much, much smaller. It is madness on a grand scale, like an episode of The Thick of It, only with that you know it would all end well.

If May does fall, then either Rees-Mogg of Johnson will lead the party into the next election. Says more about the country than anything I suppose. Not that even if Labour won there could be that much change, as the scope for negotiations are so narrow. Of course, in a perfect world, the release of the "paradise papers" would make people see they should be angry with the richest in society hiding their wealth to avid taxes than some imaginary foreigners coming over and scrounging or indulging in heath tourism. $13 trillion is estimated to be hidden away by the rich of the planet, to avoid their social responsibilities to support the weak, ill, unemployed and old. This is where the real anger should be. That the Queen is investing her money, that we pay her, in companies that prey on her poorest subjects. Instead it is reported that some minor member of the cast of Mrs Brown's Boys had invested offshore. Yes, anger at rich people and the BBC too. Whilst those who own our newspapers continue avoiding the taxes and the responsibilities of paying their taxes. Whilst society allows this to happen, and in business avoiding taxes is seen as good, things will not move on.

Instead, Britain is heading towards the cliff edge.