Financial settlement fall out

A quick few lines on the news that there may be a settlement between the EU and UK regarding the so-called divorce bill. It is worth noting that the settlement is the same sum of money that Britain would have paid if it had stayed in the EU. This is not a payment for leaving the EU, just what is already owed as a result of being a member and agreements in funding existing projects.

It is possible that the figure will be less than the £50 billion quoted, as the amount due to be paid depends on how well, or poorly, the British economy does in the next few years. And that is the expectation, yes, that Brexit will shrink the economy.

If there is to be an extension or transition deal, then that would have to be paid for, on top of this payment. And the amount will probably be much higher for using the SM and CU on worse terms than we have as full members. As this is the reality of Brexit.

On top of this, May has to sell this to her Party and Parliament. That this was supposed to be saving Britain money, and has not saved a penny yet, shows the sheer folly of Brexit. If her party does not back her, and decides to embark on regicide, then who would take over as leader, who would want to under these circumstances? I suspect the usual suspects would run a mile as having to deal with the mess they created.

This evening, the EU reiterated its position on EU rights and the issue of the Irish border. Rights should be able to be sorted, or to a point where sufficient progress is deemed to have been made. But Ireland. Refusing to move on as a result of either of these issues will mean an almost certain no deal scenario. Even if they do move on, the simple fact that there is not enough time to negotiate such a complex trade deal in ten months. Even if they met every day for 24 hours a day, just not enough time.

And it all needs ratification.

As for Britain and Ireland, there is a basic misunderstanding by British politicians of what the current situation is, that Ireland is looking after its, and its citizen's interests in insisting there is no border. It still comes to the fact that there has to be no border under the terms if the Good Friday Agreement, and yet if there is no deal, under WTO rules there has to be a border at the edges of the Eurozone. How to reconcile that? No deal will mean hard border and the trouble that may potentially bring.