Even the Telegraph now does not believe Johnson

Logistics/Freight/Ports/Shipping all FURIOUS & BAFFLED after govt tells them it won’t seek waiver on EU Safety & Security Border declarations. #Brexit red tape bonanza dead ahead. So first the 'what': last week at the Brussels negotiations the UK indicated it did not wish to remain part of the EU's safety and security zone.

As a result the UK will not seek a waiver for safety and security declarations for ALL goods coming/going UK-EU and vice versa.

This was communicated to industry stakeholders last week in a note from the Border Delivery Group to industry stakeholders - such as UK Chamber of Shipping, ports operators, Freight Transport Association, Bifa (the Freight Forwarders Association) Eurotunnel et alios.

Some had fondly imagined, on reading UK negotiation mandate (Chapter 7) that the government was going to be more ambitious - but as we've seen with EASA (Aviatin) and EWRS (Health) this was naive. This decision will but a MASSIVE new burden on business. Here's why.

The Swiss and the Norwegians have a 'waiver' (ok under EU Customs Code by international agreement) but the UK govt is not seeking those relationships.

It wants Canada or Australia, tho as source adds, "don't seem to have clocked" these aren't connected to EU via a tunnel!

So what is a 'safety and security' declaration? Better find out because per HMRC estimate UK will be doing 220 MILLION new customs declarations after #brexit - and now 220m safety and security declarations, for all shipments, inbound and outbound.

So here's what you need for EXIT (31 items in total)...the form for inbound has 45 items in total.

Estimated cost: £15 per 'shipment'. One 40ft container might contain "hundreds" of shipments.

It is worth noting at this point that the average internatinonal haulier, per Dept of Transports stats is 10 vehicles.

These companies are not run by MBAs, don't have huge bandwidth and experience. Even bundling EXIT decs as part of CUSTOMS decs (separate) this is huge.

So re. the point about Canada/Australia not being attached to the EU via a tunnel - because this is a key point.

YES non-EU goods already do these forms, but this is mostly deep sea freight - as @BIFA explains, you have 30 days from China, 7 days from USA...but to EU? Mmm.

When the single market was formed in 1992, only 2,000 trucks a day crossed the Channel - now it is 10,000 a day on average. On a peak day it could be 15,000. And the flow is almost continuous, like a river.

So truckers drive to the coast and are routed onto the best available service - Chunnel, Ferry (dest Calais, Dunkirk etc)...they have 'flexipass' essentially. But these Safety Decs must be lodged 2 hours in advance. Industry not at all clear how the sytem can cope.

The British side did, I am told, propose there would be a technical plan for 'Roll-on, Roll-off' crossing at the talks last week - but there is almost zero detail. Not for EU. Not for industry - who are always being told to 'prepare'.

The business groups are uniformly upset by what one source in the loop calls putting “political dogma above the economic well-being of the country” - and the fact that the industry is clearly being lined up for the blame if the trucks stop running on time.

So we're back to 'No Deal' planning - but that was based on an assumed world where both sides were taking short-term mitigatory measures. That's not what's happening here. This 'deal' is the new 'no deal'. The two are being elided to the point where they're indistinguisable.

This would explain the reaction of industry to this latest example of where the divergence logic leads - and to what upside is really anyone's guess. If someone can send me the govts cost/benefit analysis for this, I'm dying to see it.

As I report @ukshipping and @britishports will be writing to @michaelgove to try and urge them to take a more practical approach. @RHANews @newsfromfta are equally baffled/concerned. But will anyone listen? Doesn't sound like they will.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/08/truckers-face-paperwork-mountain-britain-opts-against-fast-track/

Imagine the coronavirus, a global econimic downturn bigger than 2008, a oil shortage as the Saudis seek to punish Russia and then Brexit on top!