Brexit: where now

So, as it has been four, long, long years, a recap and some clarifications.

1. Brexit has happened. The UK has left the EU and no one, not the keenest remoaner can frustrate that. At 23:00 on 31st January, the Articles of the European Union no longer applied to the UK, under international law.

2. The UK, or on or more of its constituent countries can rejoin unless they follow Article 49. This will take time, even if an overwhelming majority in the UK wanted it, and then the EU would have to want us back.

3. Europe is going nowhere. Neither is the EU. Geography doesn't change, and trade is most efficient and profitable when done with your closest neighbours. The UK will have to trade with the EU and the EU will have to trade with the UK. It just will get bumpy for a while, and cost UK businesses and industry even more money than preparing for two no deal Brexit has already.

4. There is no deal better than actual membership of the EU. Never was.

5. The UK Governments have failed to negotiate a trade deal with our closest neighbours, even though in doing so would have been in the national interest.

6. Negotiations with the EU will be the easiest, talks with the US, India, Japan and so on will be harder, and they will be unforgiving.

7. In almost all talks, the UK will be the junior side, and in need of conducting a deal, any deal, at speed. It will not end well.

8. Such deals will have to be in compliance with WTO rules, and with deals that those countries have made with the EU and each other.

9. Once the UK left the EU it became a third country to the EU. Under WTO rules, there can be no favouritism unless there is a trade deal.

10. The WA is an international treaty, breaking it would have longterm dire consequences in negotiations with all other countries as the UK could not be trusted.

11. Congress will not ratify a trade deal with the UK if the WA is broken in terms of the NI protocol.

12. In short, we are where we are. We cannot turn back time, we cannot rustle up more time. The way forward is for the grownups in Parliament to take charge and make the best out of what we have. Explain to the nation the lies and say in the national interest we must have a trade deal with the EU, and become a rule taker not a rule maker. Number (3) above cannot change. What can be negotiated in the next 6 weeks, even if there was will on the UK side would barely be better than a no deal. It will be full of holes and in many policy areas the UK will be at a massive disadvantage. The alternative is for no deal to happen, and deal with the fall out.

As a country, we are no further with Brexit than we were four years ago, other than we have painted ourselves into a corner, and the house is burning down. We have left the EU and there is no going back.