Where now?

It seems that the Government is driving the country towards, if not a no deal Brexit then one with little time to negotiate anything more than a bare bones deal. We should not kid ourselves, even if the stalemate were to be broken, the result would only be marginally less disastrous for the UK economy.

As I have remarked time and time again, there is no time and no space at either Dover Eastern Docks or the Channel Tunnel in Folkestone for the customs infrastructure needed to export to the EU. But it will need to be there.

It matters not a jot whether there is a deal or not, there is no preparation. And as for NI; well, things are even less clear as to how that will work. But it will have to.

The NI protocol is part of the WA, an International Treaty. It would not just be a bad look to break the terms of this, or another part of the Agreement on the financial settlement, as this would mean the UK had gone beyond not being trustworthy to being deceitful.

Congress will not react well to the NI protocol being trashed. Anything that hurts N will result in it trying to block ratifying a trade deal between the US and UK that Trump and Johnson might cook up.

Oddly, not having a trade deal with the UK weakens the negotiating hand the UK has with most other countries, as they will know the UK needs a deal, almost any deal, and so will drive very hard for concessions. But also as said for nearly four years, they would want to know what kind of trade deal the UK has with the EU, as the UK could still be a gateway. If it wanted.

The real problem is that the UK has shown in the full glare of international publicity, that it is incapable of negotiating with our nearest and friendliest trading partner, how serious would any country take the UK after this? And negotiating a deal that would be of a positve benefit to the UK, chosing to impose sanctions on itself.

And Japan is not happy.

The UK under Thatcher promised handsome returns on their potential investment in the UK, to be that gateway to Europe, and now that lies in dust. Japan will drive a hard deal, also as the UK has less leverage on its own as it did being one of 28 in the EU, Japan wants a far more favourable deal.

It is odd how the "oven ready deal" has in the space of a few months to being unacceptable. This is the very deal Johnson proclaimed and took to Parliament as a triumph. The WA might be a treaty and legally binding, but the PD is not. And yet the provision it, when it goes into detail like in the LPF provisions, that the PM, Government and Parliament agreed and ratified, is the very thing Johnson now rails against.

Rumour has it, Gove told backbenchers to vote for the deal saying it could be changed later.

It can't. And won't.

There is little enthusiasm for Brexit in the EU, there are more important issues, like recovering from the worst economic crisis in a century, they would have welcomed a delay in Brexit to allow them to concentrate on recovery, but Johnson saw an opening and something to capitalise on. This will not be forgotten.

What they also will not have forgotten is that Johnson was the source of all those straight banana stories in the 80s, and since gaining power he has been duplicitous, saying one thing in meetings, and another in public.

The ERG has something like 80 members now, and could easily defeat the Government if it voted with the opposition. The ERG has spread from the fringe to now being the mainstream, and yet no matter how Cameron, May and Johnson pander to them, its never enough. If this is the case, what could be more extreme that no deal? Well, destroying the WA for one. This is a doomsday cult, and one which cases nothing for the country or people. As I have also remarked before, since 2010, the Tory Governments have enacted policies based on dogma rather than evidence based.

And has never apologised when it has gotten things wrong. Like 120,000 extra deaths due to austerity and rather than decreasing the natonal debt, actually nearly doubling it. Chris Grayling oversaw a range of dogmatic policies in Justice and Law, most of which have now been reversed having cost the country hundreds of millions of pounds. And again, no apologies.

The race to the bottom will see food standards trashed, our human and working rights slashed, right of movement removed overseen by a Government clearly loving to be able to Govern by diktat with little oversight. It will not to go back to usual procedure, and a state of emergency will continue for some time.

Even if there is a no deal. There will have to be one. Europe will always be 23 miles from Leathercoat point in St Margaret's, 400 million of the richest people in the world, on our doorstep. Companies will want to trade with the EU, and EU companies here. Maybe we have to go through the pain, the shortages, possible riots to realise this.

It will be too late then.