Saturday, 2 December 2017

Bordering on the insane

Earlier this week, it seem the UK had satisfied the SU in relation to the financal settlement thus allowing talks to move onto talking about trade.

But of course, if money was the only issue. It would be only right to point out that in general the Brexiteers and May's Government have, at almost every step, misread or misunderstood what the EU wants or does.

Regular readers will know that money was just one of three basic points; there is also rights and the Irish border. Like money, rights should have been easy to sort out, but then again here we are eight months into bilateral talks and no deal in place, no real sign of agreement, just hopes on the British side that they have offered enough cash. But they even misunderstand that the money they are paying isn't for a deal, but just what was owed already. Anything on top of that will cost. Lots.

But as predicted, yesterday, the EU stated that the Irish border needed a solution, and the a solution that the Irish government is satisfied with, as on this the Irish take lead and the EU26 will follow. Only trouble now is that eight months have been wasted, and the deadline for progress assessment is approaching, failure to meet the minimum threshold for approval by the EU27 would mean losing upto another two months before they would revisit. And failure to agree on trade talks starting is almost guaranteeing a no deal scenario.

But then we have some UK politicians who have been pushing for Brexit for, in some case, decades, with no real idea about the practicalities, or even having assessed what the issues might be, but that it would all be so easy.

As ever, reality was always going to win out, and as predicted, the Brexiteers will try to blame anyone except themselves and their precious Brexit for where the country, economy and people are now. But even now, they fail to admit the scale of their folly, and bemoan that Ireland could block their slam dunk deal. This was always going to happen, that the EU27 would act as one, the 26 being unified to protect the interest of the other member. Its what the EU was created for, and is its strength.

The EU, the EU27 and European businesses were never going to compromise on the four basic freedoms, and Britain wasted eight months believing it could create division in Europe.

This will be a long while in British politics as May and her Government try to get a workround, a fudge. But in needing their to be on border and a hard border, is not going to be easy. Some see it as impossible, but it would mean NI or UK staying in the CU or SM or joining a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. A unique deal for NI, CU, SM or FTA would be a division in the union, a hard border down the Irish Sea meaning mobility of people, goods, services and capital being treated as though across an international border. This is something that the DUP, currently propping up May's government with a supply and whatever it is agreement, say that that solution is unacceptable.

Only other solution is for the whole of the UK staying in the CU, SM or having a FTA, but time is tight remember. Or stopping Brexit.

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