Knock Knock: who's there? Brexit reality

I said many, many months ago, that the final deal that is agreed between the UK and EU is the one that the EU will offer us; the alternative in refusing it would mean crashing out with no deal, and that would be disastrous for the UK economy, no matter how many Brexiteers says it would be fine and dandy. Not only that, but something would have to be agreed before the end of the year to allow planning for further talks, now on the transition/extension to the A50 process, and then onto talks about trade.

It is important to realise that what has been discussed for the past 18 months between DD and the EU through Michael Barnier has been "political" talks, not your actual legally enforceable trade rules. When the Brexiteers find that part three of the negotiations will be talks about talks about trade, not trade itself. Talks about trade cannot begin between the two parties until UK is a 3rd party country, i.e. after 29th March 2019.

I mention all this because in the early hours of the 8th December news broke that a deal on the three basic issues had been agreed between the UK Government, the EU and the DUP. I put the DUP in there as they blocked the previous agreement, so the talks this week have been mainly between the UK Government and their partners in power, the DUP. Once what they could agree on was set, put that to the UK and in particular the Irish Government, and away we go.

This was greeted as a triumph for May and her negotiating skills. IN truth the UK caved in on all the EU's demands, her red lines ignored, payments into the EU coffers, fully, for two more financial years, at least. And if you think this is bad, and how dreadful for May this result has been, can you imagine how bad the trade talks, or talks about trade talks will be, as the EU have been preparing for 18 months, and full time on that since the beginning of November. The UK have been tying themselves in knots dealing with its own internal arguments and disputes, giving mixed signals, whilst Brexit has meant that for the past 18 months, 27 European countries have come with a unified position, red lines and areas for discussion, and stuck with them. All movement to allow agreement or push things forward have comes from the UK side.

To call this a awful result for British negotiations would be an understatement. But then this has been with our closest friends and neighbours, can you imagine how bad the result will be if they have to negotiate with a hostile country like the US?

The UCY will have jurisdiction on EU citizens and UK citizens for at least eight more years, a decade after the referendum. It is likely that this could and will be extended. With this deal in place, it is now more unlikely that the EU27 would accept a revolk of the A50 note as most of their concerns with Brexit is now covered, and as for the Brexiteers, all the reasons for leaving have been watered down like a bad homeopathic remedy. In the EU's eyes, Brexit means Brexit, and we can just jolly well get on with it.

The EU credited May with great negotiating skills, but in reality they needed her to stay in power to prevent her Government from falling and the whole Brexit mess starting again with maybe Labour in charge, or worse, DD, Gove or Johnson, who would be more than happy to walk away from discussions. So, the EU, the UK Government and the press are treating this as a success, but it has been a capitulation, and one which signals more collapses to follow.

Just remember that Brexit will happen by simple operation of EU law and will take effect at 23:00 on 29th March 2019, unless something even more extraordinary happens. And the EU can change its mind at any point, as the sufficient progress is a matter of opinion not a point of law, even EU law. However, if a future Conservative leader would go back on this, it would be a very serious matter, and would have very serious repercussions for UK-EU relations, and trade relations with the rest of the world, as it would seen as UK breaking its word by being untrustworthy. Not the best of things when you need to negotiation maybe 60 new deals.

In short, unless something major changes, Britain will leave the EU on 29th March 2019, and will probably be in at least the SM for two more years, but that will probably be extended. And extended. A hard and no deal Brexit has been avoided, but a change in Tory leadership could change that, but this grave risks to the UK's international reputation.