Sunday, 17 December 2017

Your weekend Brexit

Yeah, I know. I really wanted to not talk or think about Brexit for a couple of weeks, but it seems that the Brexiteers are not happy.

You won, get over it!

The fact there is an undefined transition deal to be negotiated means that there is a possibility that the transition deal could be pushed back and back, to the point it might never end. So, and this is really astonishing, doubly so a few days after 11 Conservative MPs were vilified in the press and received death threats for voting so that Parliament could have a "meaningful" vote on the final deal, if any, DD gets with the EU, the Foreign Secretary, and lets remember that is his role, not Editor of The Spectator or Mayor of London, but a Minister of the Crown, today had another article published in a Sunday newspaper saying the deal was a bad idea and that Britain should not become a "vassal" state. Let me look at was vassal means.

From Wiki: "A vassal state is any state that is subordinate to another." As a member of the EU we are one of the 28, out of the EU we would become the 51st State. As the tale of the chlorine-washed chicken will tell you.

Let me get this straight, in a trade deal with a larger country, what the larger country wants the larger country gets. There is a choice of adhering to either EU rules, or so it seems, the US's. We get no say, they tell us what to do, and we do it. This is not taking back control, just the reality of international trade. That any other country, say Ireland, might want something out of the negotiations is an inconvenience.

But at the root of it, we have a Minister of the Crown, again, undermining his own PM's and Government's position, doing and saying what is right for Boris de Piffel Johnson, and not is right for the country and its people. Let us not forget, Boris was a major supporter of the EU until the late winter of 2016, and he changed his mind.

As ever making that is very complex seems very simple is not just untruthful, but dangerous.

And there is still the Irish border to sort out. No, that's right, its not sorted, just been set aside as the UK Government said that in the event of there not being a deal, there will not be a hard border between the Republic and NI. But what that means and how regulatory alignment will be achieved, which will have to be done whilst staying within the WTO rules, is unclear, but as ever, will be interesting. It cannot be fudged forever, nor can the fact that the UK still does not know what it wants at the end of negotiations; what terms it wants to be on with the EU, and the rest of the world will also wait to see, because if we are on poor terms, then deals with us might have lesser or greater value.

Make no mistake, May has to steer a path through what the EU27 wants, what NI wants, what the DUP wants, what her Europhile MPs want, what the Brexiteers wants, what the editors of the daily and Sunday newspapers say they want and against what she believes, as she campaigned to remain. It is a mess and without the wisdom of Solomon, it could end with no deal with the break up of the UK or Great Britain as NO has to be on certain trade terms with the Republic, and thus the entire EU, in order for the phase 1 agreement to hold and be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement. This weekend 51% of those polled in N said they would vote for reunification with Ireland.

It is also in the Good Friday Agreement in the even that the people of NI want reunification, the British Government should not stand in its way, and a referendum (another one) be held. These will be interesting time, where what happens in NI will likely apply to the rest of Great Britain, and saying otherwise is not truthful. Brexiteers in not highlighting issues and having solutions ready shows that it was purely ideological, not based in the real world, where political theory have to be made to work.

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