The Last (Brexit) Post, of the year. I hope.

I love my country. I care very deeply about it, even the silly inward looking people who voted to leave the EU, despite Britain having prospered for some 45 years under it. Some people really do blame the EU for all the UK's ills and problems, and no matter how many times it is pointed out that they were wrong, they will shout and scream demanding their Brexit it got their country back.

Of course it is not their country, nor is it mine either. It is ours. And how, no matter what happens, are we all going to get along once it is all over and the dust has settled? I want to remain in the EU so we can all be richer, wealthier and more diverse, so that people from the EU can come and work here, share in our prosperity, and help the country by filling in jobs, paying taxes and working in sectors and industries that need them. Without them, there will be less tax paid, and more cuts will have to happen, and in due course, even the privileged Boomers will have their pensions and care cut. Not because they deserve it, but simply because there will not be enough money in the pot for all of it to go round.

But I cannot see how leavers love the country that much, as leaving will damage it, make it poorer as a result. Maybe they really don't believe experts, but reality will win out, it always will.

Today, the EU27 agreed that sufficient progress has been made in phase 1 of the negotiations, allowing for phase II to begin. This will not be trade talks. Nor talks about trade talks. But talks about the transition, and the terms that Britain will have to adhere to, and for how long.

Talks about trade talks will begin in March, and will just talk about a framework and the politics of it; Britain will leave the EU in March 2019 without any deal on trade, that is because no deal can se even talked about until Britain is a 3rd country. No matter how friendly, how close the two sides are, even at the start, a trade deal could take 5 years to conclude, and industry a decade to adjust. Jobs will be lost, businesses will move abroad, there will be jams at ports, especially Dover. It is unavoidable.

And some Brexiteers are intent on scuppering any deal that is being done, or might be done. And some of those are in May's cabinet. All is not settled yet, nor will be for many years.

Any deal, any deal based on talks about trade talks, will have to be ratified, and will have to be passed unanimously, if not, it fails. Of course there could be a political solution, like stopping the clock, or post-dating the final agreement maybe for 5 years. But that would be difficult as it would have to be within WTO rules, as would any deal, so it is not cut and dry that all is settled. But the real big barrier to Brexit is that Britain, the UK, the PM and her cabinet, still do not know what they want at the end of it all. And a wise man once said if you don't know where you're going, you might end up somewhere that you don't want to be. And with the EU prepared, united and wanting to get it over with, still, anything can happen.

But Britain has to make its mind up what it wants, to enable to EU to know what to negotiate.

And then there is the Irish border. There is an agreement that there will be no hard border, but the solutions to avoid that are difficult and will be tricky to sort out to everyone's satisfaction. Toe have a soft border then, SM, CU or FTA. First two mean oversight by UCJ and the four freedoms. And the UCJ May ruled out as she confused it with the ECHR, and to admit the mistake would be worse (for her) than forcing the country, for decades, into a trade deal that put British jobs, workers, businesses at a disadvantage.

Merry Christmas.