Fallback fallout

Yesterday the UK Government published what it thinks of the solution to the issue of the NI/Irish border. The solution is to kick it further down the road, but limited it to 2021 or something.

The EU said that the backstop cannot be time limited. If the backstop comes into play, then its for keeps.

That means no trade deal with the US of A, or pretty much anyone, as there would have to be strict regulatory alignment, to ensure that things stay the same as they are now.

So, as we have seen time and time again, a solution is suggested; the Brexiteers say no, and threaten to resign or force an election; then capitulate at the last minute. This has happened in small increments, but surely it is better to cut to the chase for May to say this is what has to be, being in some kind of SM, CU and tax alignment or industry, exports and employment will collapse.

Meanwhile the sometime Foreign Secretary was recorded launching an attack on the Treasury on Wednesday evening. Boris is just being Boris, but was a remainer until a few months before the referendum, and now is as evangelical about Brexit as anyone.

Of course if you want to trade with the EU then you will have to abide by the EU's rules and standards. Anything else is madness, but like we saw with Grayling in the MoJ, this is not about facts or what is good for the country of the people, it is about ideological reasons, dogma, and bugger anything else.

The paraphrase Douglas Adams, it can't be Brexit that is wrong, it has to be reality.

And your reminder that whatever the Cabinet, Government or Parliament might agree to, it has to be ratified by the EU27 and the EU Parliament, so even in the unlikely event there is agreement in Cabinet, it has to carry Parliament and the DUP and be supported by the EU and ratified. Failure to get EU agreement and ratification means no deal, crash out in less than 10 months and chaos.

The obvious point to make, again, is that the last part of Brexit the UK had control of, was when to submit the A50 notice. From that point on, it was all in the control of the EU, doubly so as A50 brought a hard-wored time limit of two years in which to complete all details.

Nothing that has happened in the time since the referendum 102 weeks ago to change my opinion on this issue.

To make matters worse, the Brexiteers have been in in control or various parts of Brexit, and they have failed hopelessly to either understand the basics of trade negotiating, EU or what Brexit was or what they wanted from it.

In 102 weeks, May and DD are not negotiating with the EU really, the EU will agree to provide basically what the UK said it wanted in the A50 notification letter and May's speeches in which she set out so called red lines.

In the same timeframe, the UK is trying to set up alternative measures to replicate the functions that UK enjoys as being a member of the EU. It is all so pointless and so bloody expensive for something that was always deliverable, in that any potential trade deal struck by UK outside that of the EU would have to either be in compliance with EU regulations, lest EU impose checks and tariffs at the UK border with the bloc. That will never change, and no trade with any country in the world will not come close to the simplicity and ease of what we have with the EU now, and if there were such deals, it would threaten any remaining deals with the EU, at the cost of increasing red tape, delays and costs.

That will never change. No matter who is in charge, what party is in charge of the UK's Brexit process.

There is no jobs first Brexit.

There is no left wing Brexit.

There is no right wing Brexit.

There is no Brexit that will bring Global Brexit.

There is just Brexit.

Update: And M. Barnier has shot down the PM's fudge from yesterday saying that the backstop is permanent, not time dependant. And that the backstop (NI and GB being in the CU/SM) cannot apply to all of the UK, just NI< otherwise this is cherry picking, or cakeism.

Although he does say the paper is a place to start. So, let us see.