Thursday, 7 June 2018

What single market means and other conundrums.

In the past two years I have spoken of Customs Union and Single Market, single market especially, as it really isn't properly defined. We might know what we think it means, but pinning that down to strict legal terms is difficult. Which is why the EU itself defines it as the Internal market, and defines that as being supported by the four freedoms.

So it might be significant that Keir Starmer yesterday used the term Internal market not Single Market when stating that is what Labour would require from Brexit, suggesting a soft-end brexit if they had a say. Only that guessing what Labour really means when a spokesman stated that Labour would be pushing for "full access" to the single market, and access is open to any country in the world, even North Korea. Its membership that is key. Which is why access to the Single Market is no cure all, it is the membership that removes red tape and drive standardisation across the continent.

In the same way that being in the or a Customs Union is no fix either, CU without SM is pointless.

And then until the rest of the world sees what deal the UK is seeking with the EU and gets, then they will not sign any trade deals, even if they wanted to.

Late Tuesday night, the EU warned European Manufacturers to reconsider using UK manufactured parts lest it threaten origin rules post-Brexit. THis is the EU saying Brexit mean Brexit. A car, for example, has to be something like 45% EU manufactured, if the UK leaves, then that percentage might be too low to qualify as being EU made.

In the same way that if the UK wants to roll over deals with other countries it currently enjoys as being in the EU, then the same rules would apply, even if other countries agreed to roll these over, and there is strong indications many won't. The EU is prepared to say that for the transition period, the UK is to be considered to be part of the EU, but that is advisory only.

In the meantime May has agreed to extend the debate on the Lord's amendments in the HoC by another day, but that is unlikely to placate rebels, only that even though there are cross-party support for the Lord's amendments, the Labour party is tabeling its own, and seems that it will whip its own MPs to abstain on those Lord's amendments, thus ensuring they will not be carried. And I'm sure that Billy Bragg and the other Corbynistas will claim their hero is still playing the long game.

Today, the Government published its plans for the NI/Irish border, and threatened to end either May's or DD's career in high office, only May fudged it, including a line about the back stop position being time restricted, which the EU have quickly rejected. So, ten days to come up with a solution to the border that is acceptable to her Cabinet and party on one side, the EU27 and Ireland in particular on another side, and the DUp who prop the Tories up on the third side.

This seems like one of those logic puzzles, but it reality.

No solution for Ireland by the end of the month, and no deal, at all, on anything.

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