Post agreement disagreements

So, on Thursday the draft political framework agreement was signed up by both UK and EU.

But remember these are talks about talks, the real trade deal has yet to be agreed upon, but tis sets out the framework, a framework that excludes 80% of UK exports, services.

Just think of that for a moment.

I won't go into details about what it means, as it is likely that Parliament will reject it, at least at first. Today is the 25th November, meaning there is five months four days before the UK is to leave the EU. Rejecting the WA and political framework agreement leaves very bleak choices facing May, her Cabinet and Parliament.

First of all, as I have said Brexit is happening, unless something else happens, and there really is very little time or inclination of anything else happening. So, the choice is back to a Hobson's one, take it or leave it. If Parliament rejects it, it will almost certainly be "on the table" meaning that as time further runs out, Parliament might return to it and vote again. Neither May or Corbyn have shown any desire for any other course of action. May has said that as long as she is PM there will be no no deal, no no Brexit, no "people's vote". So, it Parliament decides otherwise it seems there will have to be a new leader of the Conservative Party, and so PM.

There is no time for these two choices:

Second, the people's vote. Not having the correct primary and secondary legislation in place, like in 2016, means getting a result that cannot be accepted by all sides. Such legislation takes several months to draft and get through Parliament, likely nearly a year at least. And then the Electoral Commission is said to only favour binary choices in referendums, so what would the two choices be out of: may's deal, no deal, no Brexit or any other course of action?

Thirdly, an election. No time for that at the moment with every day counting now. An election takes at least a month from calling it to the day itself, and there is the small matter of which sides the two main parties would go for, the Conservatives under May would be for leave with her deal at the heart of it, but under another leader, who knows? And if May were to go, who could lead the party to unify? It seems an impossible task, at least for Brexiteers who most know have lied to a greater or lesser amount. It would be impossible to see the party unifying behind Johnson (Boris), Gove, DD, Fox, etc. Labour under Corbyn, it would appear, have to go for remain, or at least a soft Brexit as that was the line that party members voted at conference, even if Corbyn seems to ignore that fact.

The last choice is no Brexit. The most common sense choice, so the least likely course to be taken, especially as both May and Corby have ruled it out. Next week's UCJ judgement on how and who can withdraw the A50 notification might mean that Parliament might vote for remain, but the numbers for a majority voting for that seems unlikely.

So, you ask, what is going to happen. I don't know, but with Brexit going to happen, most likely, it is May's deal or no deal.