Sunday 18 November 2018

Sunday Brexit.

UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019, unless the PM of the day says otherwise.

Neither May nor Corbyn are saying that.

Both think they can deliver either a Brexit that lives up to the referendum (May) or improves on May's deal (Corbyn). Both are wrong. The best deal we can get is the one we have now.

The WA on the table is the only one the EU will offer us. It is better than it could have been.

It is 585 pages long, and is in legalese, no one four days later has read it all and understood it, let alone on the day it was published.

The WA is a result of the A50 notification letter and May's red lines, although some of those have either been broken or rubbed out, its what happens when Brexit meets reality.

No one could have negotiated a better "deal" with the EU, not Corbyn, not JRM.

Brexiteers have been put in charge of Brexit, either DD, Raab or Fox. Failure of Brexit is a failure of their actions and lack of preparation.

Being more aggressive in talks would not have resulted in a better "deal". These are our neighbours and trading partners, this is the easiest of trade negotiations, from now on things get really difficult.

The EU will not compromise on the four freedoms which are the foundations of the EU. They would not do it when we were a member of the EU, they certainly won't do it with us leaving or a 3rd country.

The Irish border was always going to be the most difficult issue to deal with. It was said two years or more ago. It is not some remainer or EU plot to thwart Brexit. Brexit will happen either with or without a solution found.

Technological solutions are, at best, a decade away, and would have to be agreed by both sides.

Ratification of the WA still has to be done. We are already nearly two months behind schedule, so has to start ASAP.

Failure to get ratification in Westminster, all of the EU27 Parliaments and the EU Parliament would result in there being no WA, no TA, and UK crashing out with no deal.

There is no "WTO deal". It is reverting to WTO schedules and tariffs. It would make entire industries instantly uncompetitive.

It can take many years for two countries to agree on a trade agreement to get off WTO schedules.

Last week's events mean that it is now agreed, except by the Brexiteer headbangers, that a bad deal is better than a no deal.

Which is true. Always was.

Making a bluff that your opponent knows is such weakens your position, and gives the impression you think they are stupid.

The only long term preparations visible in kent is the ones to turn motorways into lorry parks.

The health secretary could not guarantee that no one would die due to lack of medicine in the event of no deal.

Brexiteers seem to think that in the event of a no deal that somehow, side deals could still be done to mitigate the worst issues.

There are only 25 letters of no confidence submitted to the 1922 committee, some 20 or so short.

Leading Brexiteers have all run away when the going got tough, or the referendum was won, or in the case of Gove, babbles about plastic straws.

There isn't enough time for a 2nd (or 3rd) referendum, and extension, pause or cancelling A50 would be needed.

Pausing, extending or stopping Brexit, or any act which means the UK does not leave the EU by the end of May (the month), then there would have to be EU elections in the UK, with MEPs sitting in the EU Parliament for 5 years. Brexit would be delayed by the same time, in effect.

With the UK leaving the EU, the EU is duty bound to look after its interest and the interests of the 27 remaining states, not punishing the UK by not giving us what we want.

For what its worth, I think that in a month's time, the UK will accept the WA as there is no other choice.

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