Thursday Brexit news

Yesterday might not have ended Brexit, but it seems to me that something changed. Whether that has lasting change or not, we shall see. But when JRM calls the Governor of the Bank of England a “second class Canadian politician”, then to paraphrase Thatcher, when all they have got left is personal insults, they have lost the argument.

Turns out that the Treasury’s economic forecast was riddled with even more impossible assumptions than thought last night, and even then the report could not make any kind of Brexit an actual benefit to UK.

May and Corbyn have agreed to have a TV debate, which is not that interesting as they pretty much agree with each other, so will not discuss the possible alternatives. The million Brits who live and work in the EU, are mostly young and professional, has been largely ignored by the whole Brexit process, the opposite of what they were promised, when they were told that Brexit would not affect them at all. Now if they return to the UK if they were made redundant or no longer able to work in the EU, they would not be able to claim any benefits for at least three months and would have to prove they have no attachments to where they had been living.

Not only will Brexit make them lose their job, they won’t be able to live back home either as they won’t be able to claim any support.

At the moment the way forward is not clear, and like it or not, the most likely outcome is that the UK leaves the EU with no WA or TA, as that is the simplest and easiest way forward in that it requires no effort on the part of the Brexiteers, which is why we are where we are, no actual planning.

Other paths are available, but not the one Labour is proposing, in renegotiating the WA. There is no appetite to reopen Brexit, the WA is all there is. The framework trade agreement is all there is. The EU will not roll over and give more, in its view they have agreed something generous already.

There is not enough time for there to be a referendum, for there to be one A50 would have to be extended beyond May, in which case there would have to be EU elections in the UK. The EU will not agree to that, unless it is the only way forward and it believes the UK is acting in good faith. As Britain has not acted in good faith all through Brexit, this is also unlikely.

And as both leaders of the two main parties said this not going to happen, a no Brexit seems also unlikely. But then two years ago, Brexit seemed as unlikely.

So who know?

The other alternative is accepting the WA as it is, and I think that will happen, be rejected once, Parliament looks at the alternatives and goes back to it.

But the UK will re-join sooner or later, makes no sense to be out of the EU, might be in a couple of years or in a couple of decades. We shall see. But the lesson will have been leaned, but millions of lives will have been blighted

Even now, may cannot tell the truth on Brexit, saying an extension of A50 would mean the WA be renegotiated. This is not true, we might have to pay more, but for now the UK has agreed on a formula on what it needs to pay.

May lied to the Commons on Monday when she said the UK would be better off under Brexit. The Treasury and BoE reports show that all forms of Brexit will make the country poorer. In such circumstances when a minister misleads the House, they should offer their resignation.