Rules of Engagement

Former UK Ambassador, Sir Christopher Mayer, in a tweet calmly asked: "This is a harbinger of things to come. We must be prepared for some very rough exchanges with the French navy and trawlermen in 2021. Are we ready? Is there a plan? Are there rules of engagement?"

This echos something from very nearly four years ago when Sir Michael Howard, who has something of the night still about him, suggested war with Spain over a minor spat over Gibraltar.

Quite what it is with Brexiteers and wanting war, any war, with anyone.

I can almost see France from my house, it will always be there, 21 miles from Chez Jelltex. French security has stopped mass immigration across the Channel, instead setting up camps along the coast, living up to their international commitments. It would be only fair if the UK failed to live up to their commitments, that France just shrugs its collective shoulders and let the immigrants come, then we would have to have such camps along the Kent coast.

But by all means, bang the drums of war like the cowards they really are.

The Heath Secretary has promised that the track and trace system will be up and running nationwide from the beginning of June, that is a week ago, and so far just the Isle of Wight had trialled the app. 11 other areas have been earmarked to expand testing of the systems, but at least one has not been given any details. Details on how testing of a national rollout that is due to go live in a week.

And the army of testers and trackers: what testing have they been given, what skills do they have, is there any legal force in one of them ordering a 14 day quarantine?

As I have said before, these structures: testing, track and trace and isolation should have been up and running when the lockdown was lifted. But the PM instead called on Great British Common Sense, then he disappeared for 6 days. Possibly to hide in a fridge, least that horrible Starmer chap asks some tough Latin vocab questions.

We are lead by idiots and fools, but we knew that before the election, yet elected them anyway. Only bright stop is that we now seem to have a functioning opposition, which will force the Government to reveal their "plans" for tackling the virus.

I will leave you with these two thoughts: Imagine what Brexit would have turned out like had Starmer been Labour leader, holding May and her cabinet to account, mastering complicated facts and scenarios, Brexit would have still happened, but the electorate would have been more aware f the severe risks involved.

And image COVID would have happened 12 months later, and all supplies had to go through the complicated customs and regulatory checks at the UK border? Food and supplies would have been much slower to reach the shops, and the situation made far worse. Shortages, extreme in some cases, of basic foodstuffs, making panicing of what was available all the more likely.

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PS

Brexit has happened. The UK has left the EU, and things are the way they are because the UK and EU have entered into an extension, and for all intents and purposes, the UK remains a de-facto member. But that stops at 23:00 on 31st December.

THe UK and EU agreed and sighed two documents, the WA and PD. The WA formalised the NO protocol, and means that no matter what happens, NO will partly remain in the EU's SM and CU, at least for aggri goods. This will create a regulatory border in the Irish Sea between the rump Great Britain and NI. No matter what Johnson said, it was what he negotiated, signed up to, and Parliament enacted.

Therefore, quietly news of plans for border infrastructure at three NI ports were leaked in the past week, and that some kind of check will have to take place.

The UK and EU also agreed on the PD, which included, among other things, Level Playing Field commitments (LPF). Parliament also agreed on this in allowing Brexit to happen. The UK Government now plans to renege on these.

The EU has only a limited bandwidth in dealing with issues: not only is there Brexit, but there is COVID-19 and its economic fallout, the rise of dictators in Hungary and Poland, and the undermining of the democratic process by countries like Russia and China.

Brexit has happened, despite decades of pandering to the UK, the UK left anyway, taking its poisoned politics and tiny minded Brexteers with it. Barnier still negotiates, under a mandate from the EU Council, but a mandate based on the WA and PD. If the UK wants to leave, it can. The EU will continue, its institutions, SM and CU mattering more than trade with the UK.

Life will go on for the EU, they will be poorer without trade to the UK, but will cope. The UK, although the cost of trade lost will be smaller than the EU's, as a percentage of total trade it will damage the UK much, much more. Its rather like the Father Ted scene, cows further away seems small. Which makes the UK Father Dougal, which seems right.

And the letter sent by Sir David Frost on how unfair the EU has been in denying the UK's oh so reasonable requests for a bespoke deal based in bits and pices of deal the EU has struck with places like Canada and China have no truck. The UK is getting lesson in leverage and real power. A country holding all the cards would not have to complain like Kevin the Teenager would, about how unfair the process was.

As warned, post Brexit the EU will all be about protecting its interests, and not being a charity to the simple-minded UK lead my spivs and charlatans.

Either there will or won't be an extension, and if the UK does request one, it will only be granted if it is in the EU's interests. As pretty much all trust in the UK's word being trustworthy has now gone, the UK might think it might as well just get it over with.