Ghosts of Brexit future

From time to time, it is interesting to postulate what form Brexit will have taken in, say, six months, two year and five years time.

As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, the UK either will or will not comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol. The action Johnson chooses will form our relationship with the EU for many years.

There is no indication that the Government really can face the political consequences of complying with the NIP, so it seems likely that the UK will withdraw from it. This will have the effect of cancelling out all other agreements in relation to the WA and TCA, with serious results.

Time after time, Johnson has shown that he puts whatever he thinks is best for unity in the Conservative and Union Party above the needs and requirements of the whole country. The ERG/CRG have pressed for ever stronger anction or harder Brexits, and it is never enough, a few weeks later there are new demands.

Johnson has been setting up to blame the EU for the eventual failure, and this will play well with the blue rinse base of the party. Also, no matter what happens, it is now Brexit is being championed as being the right thing to do becauseeither the EU is weak or the EU is a bully.

And again I have to point out, no amount of trade deals with any country or countries around the world will make up for the drop in exports and GDP caused by Brexit. And the "deals" that Liz Truss has overseen have been almost all, just a continuation of the deal and terms we had as an EU member state. The UK is not £billions better off in terms of trade, this has been shown to be misleading and she has been rebuked for saying this.

At some point, some kind of normal relations wit the EU will happen, its just a case of when there is political or economic will. It might be Johnson who changes course, or another PM months, or years down the line, the only question is when, and how much more damage to the economy and our international reputation is done by then.

So, in short, Brexit will fail on its most basic of promises, and rather than save £350 million a week will have cost multiples of that.

And you're still not angry?

And news just in:

If the UK violates the terms of the GFA it could be precluded from joining the CPTPP, as "only those that meet the "highest standards" of a rules-based order will be accepted."

Oh....