Thursday 18 May 2023

Why Brexit failed

I am an auditor and specialist in Management Systems and change management in particular. If I were to audit this Government using ISO 9001:2015, the lack of inputs and considerations of risks and oportunities would lead me to raise nonconformities.

Strategic decisions need strategic decision making processes, and none of that has taken place with Brexit.

In short, if a company was run the way Brexit was implemented, the CEO would have been replaced.

Maybe that's why we have rattled through Prime Ministers so fast?

1. No one in Government, Governments, from Camerons to Johnson's, did a risk and oportunity assessment of Brexit. That JRM was Brexit Oportnunities Minister some six years after the referendum shows how poorly successive Governments prepared for the single largest change in UK Government policy. Identifying risk and oportunities, ensuring oportunities are taken and risks mitigated against, is one of the most basic principles of change management, and totally lacking from Brexit.

Any critism of Brexit, or the way it was done, or the form that was chosen, as shouted down as project fear. And ignored. Only needing to be addressed later when it became a critical problem. The car industry, or what's left of it, is on the edge of collapse, and is begging the Government for sooftening of the import rules relating to rules of origin into the EU SM. Something that was warned about for many years. And ignored.

2. What were the expect benefits of Brexit, and what activities were done to ensure that those benefits were as expected, changing policies when the expected benefits did not occur.

From Cameron onwards, no PM wanted to show, officially, how much damage Brexit was going to do, so no impact assessments, even no such assessments before the referendum, and this was from a PM that wanted to Remain.

3. Consulting with interested Parties: business, the Stock Exchange, importers, hauliers, unions, warehousing, SMEs, supermarkets. Anyone really, who knew more about how the real world works than those headbangers who claimed to be doing the "will of the people". And still do, when poll after poll now states that the people think Brexit is going badly and want closer relations to the EU.

This week has seen more bad news for Brexit. One, that there is rules of origin issues from the car industry, and two, Barclays is looking to hire 200 bankers to work in France. Although the trade minister is denying the issues seen by UK industry is anything to do with Brexit, clearly a lie when the rules of origin issues only became an issue under the TCA.

Headline in the Hate Mail today with Starmer announcing he is going to renegotiate the UK's Brexit deal with the Eu if he becomes PM. "Showing his true colours", screamed the Mial front page. And yet the whole TCA has to be renegotiated in 2025, and Johnson tried to renegotiate it almost as soon as the ink dried on the treaty.

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