Sunday, 29 April 2018

The Brexit conundrum

To put it simply, DD's job is to set up deals and arrangements with the EU that means that our relationship with the bloc stays the same; trade, travel, living and working.

All this time, money and effort to ensure things stay the same, which is why it is most likely that we will end up the a BINO Brexit, Brexit in name only.

This is because UK is incapable of replacing those arrangements and deals in the two year A50 notification period. Turns out the things experts said was impossible in the two year time frame ended up being impossible! Who knew? That was even before the band of useless twats May has appointed as her crack Brexit team: Johnson, Gove, Fox and DD.

That and not being able to agree between themselves in Cabinet what it was Brexit actually was, or what they, as a group, wanted to be the end point. In an odd irony, the 26 members of the Cabinet are less unified than the EU27. That is some failure for May, and for the EU, something to unify against.

The EU have been several paces ahead of the UK in the negotiations. The EU comes up with something, the UK says it is unacceptable, then months later agrees. Even I could do that. But can you imagine if this "skill" is taken forward to really aggressive countries, like the US?

There are the headbangers of course, who want UK out of not just the EU, but the SM and CU and anything with European in its title. Maybe its as just as well the European Cup has been renamed the Champions League. Exit both the SM and CU, as if there would be no impact, not that they care of course. DD's department has not spoken to any company regarding solutions to either the border in Ireland nor the one at Dover. Nor has any member of that department actually been to Dover to see how busy it is, and how any delay would be devastating not just to the town, but to the country.

Almost as if they are just going through the motions of Brexit without doing any of the work to back up what it might actually mean. Bear in mind that unless there is a solution to the NI?Irish Border and EU citizens rights in the UK, then there is no deal. No transition, no associate membership, no trade deal, no framework, nothing. And that would mean the UK being out of the UK 11 months today, and not having the infrastructure and resources to cope, but not een having dug the foundations for new customs offices at the Eastern Docks.

The question comes as to what the referendum vote actually meant: leaving the EU only, or more. Strictly speaking, if in 11 months time, the UK leaves the EU only, stays in some kind of SM and CU and VAT arrangement, then the mandate would have been carried out, and would be very difficult for Brexiteers to push for anything beyond that: I mean, the public would say, you won, we left the EU? And trying to explain the technical details on what the SM and CU were and why it would be a good thing to leave, if having left the EU nothing really had changed.

The EU has restated many times, that without a solution to the NI/Irish border, then there can be no agreement. DD wanted to kick that into the long grass until October, but the EU refuses and says there has to be agreement before the end of June. It is going to be a bumpy two months.

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