Where will Brexit end up

Let's start with the familiar statement: UK will leave the EU by operation of international law and the passing of the two years set by the A50 process.

In order for UK not to leave the UK, the Government of the day, would have to make a request to withdraw the notification, and the EU would have to agree, agree in that it was being withdrawn "in good faith" and not just a ply to delay time whilst UK made up its mind and got its shit together.

As there is no sign of the current Government, or a potential Labour Government under its current leader, Jeremy Corbyn, of changing course on Brexit. Despite it being party policy to remain in the SM and CU, he is determined to take a Labour governed UK out of the EU.

So, for Brexit to be stopped there would have to be something to change the only two parties capable of winning an election to warrant them to change. The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit, but the first past the post system stacks elections against them.

In order for there to be a second referendum, primary legislation would have to be drafted, debated and passed. There is not enough time for that, and anyway, with each passing day there is less time. And then if there was a second referendum, there is the question about the question; what would it be? Would it be a binary choice again when it is a choice of many shades?

Could Parliament force the Government to hold a referendum or halt Brexit? They could put in a clause in the withdrawal bill, but the Commons could strike it out, or the Government could choose to ignore it. That seems to be the situation. Constitutional law is not my strong point. Parliament might be given a vote on the "deal" May and DD gets, or might get, but it will be a Hobson's choice of take it or leave it. And to leave it would mean crashing out without a deal, unless the Government agreed to abide by the vote.

But, if the UK does leave the EU, and due to the NI/Irish border issue, has to stay in the CU and SM or aligned with them, and agreeing to abide by all rules as if it were a member, then the "mandate of the referendum would have been met. Currently there is a transition period of 21 months, ending at the close of 2020, but that could be extended if both sides wanted.

And extended.

And as long as it suits both side, the extensions could keep on, until a point where either UK decided to rejoin the EU under A49, or there is a solution of the border(s) issue, and then the trade deal which should be agreed in framework, be triggered.

Thing is, if the UK leave the EU, and the Brexiteers bang on about wanting to leave the SM and CU, would the public care? Most people don't know about these other two parts of the way in which trade in the bloc is moved and done. It is likely that once UK leave the EU, any momentum, any arguments for leaving the SM and would flounder, and UK would be stuck in a kind of limbo where it had to abide by rules and laws, but able to trade as if it were in the EU. And the EU gets the best of both worlds, the UK out of the EU, so no longer our vetoes slowing things down, and trade would be unaffected and trade will continue if nothing had changed.

A well played hand by the EU, who has prepared before each stage of Brexit, whilst UK still shuffles papers and tries to understand the terms and what they mean.

Which is why there will be a hard push n the next few months for a hard Brexit, because if it isn't done by 29th March next year, it's unlikely to happen at all. Apart from UK not taking part in the rule making, everything else will stay the same, including freedom of movement, goods and services, so the whole Brexit process would have been for nothing at all, and as the older Brexit supports shrug off their mortal coil, UK will get more Europhile until it decides to rejoin.