The Brexit pause

It has been quiet in the world of Brexit for some time now, but that is going to change very quickly, as both the EU and UK want to wrap an agreement on the first and second phases of talks. But as the EU says, nothing is agreed until it is all agreed.

It will mean, finally, the UK and May in particular, facing up to promises that has been made in the past, and trying to get them past the headbanging Brexiteers.

In short, we pretty much know what is likely to happen: the NI/Irish border will in insolvable, and so the fallback position will be for NI to be so closely aligned with the EU rules it is in A CU/SM without being in THE. And in order for there to be no internal border inside the UK, all of Britain will also have to abide by this too.

This might be insufferable for the headbangers, but was the most likely result of not thinking through the implication of Brexit, on what is actually part of the UK.

It is important to point out that as part of the EU there is no trade barriers between the UK and EU, and as long as Britain remains part of the EU or signs an agreement thus replacing the membership with the same responsibilities, it is only logical that depending on how comprehensive any deal, FTA or not under a different name, the barriers will rise, not because of spit on the EU side, but because it has to in EU and international trade law. Even the WTO agrees this.

As pure coincidence, this week marks the 20th anniversary of the signing of the GFA. Five previous NI secraties wrote to the Time today in praise of the agreement, and Bill Clinton spoke about the peace it has brought, thus showing that a man retired from politics and American, has a better understanding of Irish politics and implications of Brexit than most current UK ministers.

Bear in mind that all movement to get Brexit to this point has been on the UK side, and much more movement is needed for an agreement, and then it needs ratifying.

The upshot is Britain being out of the EU next year, but in a CU and SM for at least 21 months months, accepting all current and future rules. This will be extended and extended until UK joins an an associate member before rejoining under A49. All an expensive and pointless waste of time.

Still got to laugh.