The return of the Irish Border

Of course, the Irish Border was always going to dictate on the shape of Brexit.

Today, the Torygraph leads with news that the EU have rejected UK's plans for the border to remain "frictionless". I say plans, more like dreams really.

In reality, in order to be frictionless, like it is now, UK, or NI at least, would have to remain in both the SM and CU. But as both would be left if the UK leaves the EU, then setting up SM and CU that replicate what we are leaving to ensure the continued flow of trade.

You might be wondering what the point in all this if we are to leave and just spend billions of pounds replicating what we already have. And you would be right.

There is no easy answer to the Irish Border for May: well there is, or are, but the choices will upset either one wing of the Tory party or the other, or the DUP. And whatever is done has to meet the Irish Republic's demands. If not, they will not ratify the deal.

So it is very important that it is settled to the satisfaction of all parties, but Ireland first and foremost, because without their approval there is no exit deal and no transition deal either. And UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and onto WTO rules.

At the root cause, there is a basic misunderstanding by the Government on how the EU works, how international trade works and the apparent hope that something would turn up. Bear in mind, as ever, that it is the UK that is leaving the EU, not the EU kicking out UK, so it is up to UK to find solutions to the problems their policy has created. One would have hoped that these would have been thought about and solved before the referendum, or before the A50 notification was sent.

And in the background is that any potential deal must be in compliance with EU rules and laws, as well as WTO rules and schedules. And what is true for the NI-Irish Border, is true for all ports and airports, in that frictionless trade and traffic depends on UK remaining in the SM and CU, remaining in the Eu in other words, or setting up a SM and CU that replicates what already exists. The second choice will be difficult and very expensive, but unavoidable if trade is to continue.

And this has to be all sorted by the end of September 2018; five months time, if the ratification process has a decent chance of getting through each of the Parliaments of the E27, the European Parliament and Westminster.