Tuesday, 29 October 2019

To the hustings!

There is to be a General Election, probably before Christmas.

The final obstacle, Corbyn, changed his mind this morning and has said he will now support Johnson's on paragraph bill amending the FTPA.

Let us not forget why we're here, at this point in time.

In April 2016 there was the referendum, where a narrow majority voted to "leave" the EU. I put in the commas as up to this point, what leaving entailed has been left largely blanks, or has changed as time goes on. For most ERGers it now means leaving with no deal.

May called a snap General Election shortly after triggering the A50 process, and called on the electorate to back her vision (!) for Brexit.

She lost her majority. But important to remember, the electorate chose this Parliament to deliver Brexit. Or not. And that this Parliament pretty much relected the referendum, in that there was just a majority for say what was not liked, but not a majority for anything that was liked.

As a Parliament, it has mis-stepped at times, but when pushed has stood up to an increasingly belligerent and bullying executive, and with packing of crowd-sourced legal cases, the power of the executive has been defined and limited. It hasn't been for nothing.

When Johnson, JRM or Cummings complain about losing votes, that is the sound of a constitution working, and it has done, in the end, for the last two years.

The Parliament has tried to tackle the basic issues with Brexit, but has found it cannot come up with a solution. And that was never going to change. In an election, anything can happen, the sitting Government can extend or lose their right to govern.

Elections are normally fought on policies and intentions, and on the past record of the sitting Government. But not this time. This will be fought with lies, spite and hate. We have seen it already in the three months Johnson has been PM, and this will only intensify through the next six weeks. Telling the truth would not get Johnson elected, lying and throwing mud at the other parties just might.

Truth has been in short supply since 2015, and with the Government refusing to undertake impact assessments and costing of Johnson's WA, how can anyone really make an informed choice when the consequences of voting this way or that are unknown.

It is expected that Johnson will win. But then May was projected to win a 200 seat majority in 2017, and didn't. Much can happen in 6 weeks, and it is on Thursday that the third Brexit day will come and go and the UK still in the EU at the end of it, even when Johnson staked his reputation (ha!) on delivering an October 31st exit. The last three months mirrored May's two years in power, only on speed, with cunning plan after cunning plan being hatched and failed, until a letter was sent requesting the EU grant a further extension.

An election was inevitable, as the EU could possibly have run out of patience if there had not been an election in December and come January another three month extension requested. So, best get this over with now.

The Speaker leaves his post on Thursday, a new one has to be elected, and whoever it is, might not allow such flexibility in interpretation of some of Erskine May's more obscure passages and rules. Berkow was flexible for both sides, much more so for the Government in the first year of May's premiership, but it is allowing humble addresses and amendments to what used to be unamendable motions that he will be remembered for. Though, it was May pulling the MV halfway through debate and only to reintroduce it later that seemed to fire the Speaker up in standing up for The Commons.

A new Parliament will make things different, but maybe not in the way expected.

We shall see, we shall see.

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