Thursday, 29 October 2020

All quiet on the Brexit front

There has been very little in the media national, international or social regarding Brexit. Talks of some kind are ongoing.

Some think we should see the radio silence as a good sign that seriousness has broken out.

I have written about Brexit long enough to know that we should never assign common sense to Brexit or the Brexiteers, because if common sense was ever a factor, we would still be a member of the EU.

Instead we hurtle towards full economic Brexit and the peak of a COVID second wave, with those employers still standing reeling from one to the other and not being aboe to mitigate for both, as hoarding supplies costs capital and mitigating against COVID means saving. They can't do both.

So, will there be a deal?

Makes some difference, but not a lot as the deal that may be struck will cover just some aspects of trade. It might eliminate tariffs, but I have always said those who talk about trade in just tariffs don't really understand the subject, as far more costly are no-tafiff barriers like rules, regulations and paperwork. Thos will b in place either with or wthout a deal, and will be crippling.

In order to administer both or either, the UK Government has to recruit 50,000 customs officials. An army of penpushers literally bigger than the actual army.

The realisation this week that restrictions on freedom of moement applies to UK citizens heading to Europe might make some think that the controls Johnson wants the EU will use too.

Of course they will. Trust or punative measurs that one applies will be applied by the other.

And remember, the more control you want, the less trade you will get. Its a simple choice, but the cost will be huge and will change the country for generations.

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