The inevitability of it all

Pandemics can be predicted on mathamatical models; knowing the population, the infection (R) rate, we can have a pretty good guess what the infections and deaths will be like in days, weeks and even months ahead.

Forecasts in March said how bad things would be, politicians baulked, dithered, and tens of thousands of extra people died.

In September, SAGE recommended a two week national lockdown, the PM refused.

Instead we have seen lockdown, if not by stealth, but by increments as one area of the north of England after another is locked down ever tighter.

By estimates, there are now over 100,000 new cases every day, and the R rate in England is between 1.5 and 2.7, so we know this will rapidly go up, as those who will show symptoms next week are already infected, and some of those will go on to be next months daily deaths.

By the middle of Novemeber, the UK will be seeing 1,000 deaths a day. This is as a result of the climbing R rate and the mortality rate.

It is inevitable.

And yet the PM faces a daily battle with his backbenchers, the editors of Fleet Street and relaity in denying the inevitable lockdown.

It will come.

It will be longer and harsher than was needed had it been brought in back in September.

The same mistake as in March. Made by the same people who were in charge then. And those same people congratulated themselves, on record, on having done a good job.

So we enter the last six weeks if the Brexit tranisition period with a pandemic sweeping the country, closing the economy down.

Its gim now, but imagine how bad this will be in a month, or two?