Brexit: all going to plan, so far.

Nearly six months into the hardest Brexit without there being a an actual deal, and with a few exceptions, there is little in the media to suggest there is anything wrong.

But look into road haulage twitter or wine importers/exports twitter or knitters twitter and you will get a different picture.

First, haulage:

There are currently 70,000 driver vacancies, and the RHA is calling for the Army be be drafted in to help. The delay in the final stage of unlocking my only have delayed this a month, because an increase in demandfor deliveries will not be able to be met. THough, in fairness, this is tempered by the fact there is an even more severe shortage of staff in agriculture and hospitality which will damped both supply and demand.

So far, so dreadful.

The impending trade deal with Australia has the prosepct of customers in the UK saving several PENCE per bottle of Ozzy plonk, but not much to be honest, while imports from the US, so far, have now recovered, new VAT rules and another layer of self-imposed UK red tape by the UK Government will make importing all wine, except Aussie wines much more difficult. Exports to the EU are very much harder now.

And then there is niche markets and secotors that the internet was so good at filling. Sites like Etsy, EBay allowed people to set up small businesses, and thanks to the EU SM, were able to have half a billion potential EU customers that you only had to pay postage to get them their goods. This has now changed, with couriers either refusing to supply the EU or imposing such costs it is no longer worth it, but new VAT rules make it even more complicated from July 1st, and the few people still supplying the EU will find that small remaining market will further shrink, as customer find EU suppliers that are cheaper and now quicker, as delays in customs can mean good that used to take a couple of days to ship, can now take weeks or months. And then have a price increase of 50% due to Brexit-related handling costs.

George Peretz QC sets out some clarification points on the NIP on Twitter yesterday:

1. It sets out binding obligations under international law - as an integral part of the Withdrawal Agreement.

2. It is also incorporated into U.K. law (s.7A of the EU Withdrawal Agreement). It binds the U.K. government as a matter of domestic law (subject to legislation clearly overriding it, which would be unlikely to clear the House of Lords).

3. No, Secretary of State: it is not a “policy document”: it is U.K. and international law.

4. No, Secretary of State: the requirements for GB-NI checks and controls are set out in the Protocol with legal clarity (albeit in a way that is designed to distract a lazy reader - but no one in the current govt falls under that head).

5. The Protocol provides that, with limited exceptions to be agreed by the EU, EU law on the regulation of goods, VAT, state aid (some wrinkles there), and customs applies in full to NI.

6. That means that if GB chooses, in those fields, to diverge from the EU, GB/NI divergence grows too. Those who claim to value the Union need to hold onto that fact, in making choices for GB.

7. NI didn’t consent to the Protocol: though it can get rid of it in 2024.

8. Those complaining about that fact need to remember that NI didn’t consent to Brexit either. But it happened.

10. Any claim that the Protocol is a technical trade matter and not of constitutional significance fails to grapple with the point that constitutions usually have quite a lot to say about internal trade, and also on who determines tax and regulation.

11. But the fact that the Protocol is constitutional doesn’t necessarily mean that it represents a change in NI’s status as part of the U.K. to which the people of NI should consent, under the Good Friday Agreement.

12. The democratic issue was obvious to anyone who read the Protocol in 2019. The term “shameless effrontery” is apt to cover those who now complain about it, but in 2019 voted for it, went along with it, said it was a “great deal”, or said no one needed to scrutinise it.

13. The Protocol compromises the sovereignty of the U.K. It also compromises the sovereignty of the EU27. That’s what treaties are: compromises of sovereignty.

14. Proposals that the EU drop its standards, relax its controls, or treat Ireland differently from other Member States are demands that EU27 States compromise their sovereignty. See 13 above

15. The Protocol means that NI producers of goods can sell throughout the EU without trade and customs barriers. They do not face the huge trade obstacles now facing GB exporters to the EU. And NI suppliers can also sell freely to GB. There are some advantages, there.

16. The Protocol is the answer to the tragic problem: a problem to which there is and can be no satisfactory answer. It is easy to criticise it. But the criticism is interesting only if it has (non- Unicorn) solutions attached.

17. Finding solutions to practical problems involves compromise and some acceptance of risk on the EU side. The Protocol requires the EU to address such ameliorations constructively.

18. But getting the EU to trust the current government, and to accept risk, has been made harder by the current government’s persistent misrepresentation of what the NIP says, of its binding nature, and by its threats to breach it.

19. In the medium to long run, the democratic deficiency - the lack of say by the people of NI in many of rules and taxes that apply to them - is going to be a problem. Wise heads will be thinking about how to deal with that: the answer isn’t going to be simple (it never is).

And yesterday evening it emerged that the new leader of the DUP had resigned after just 21 days in post, after a day in which there were votes against appointing a First Monister but Poots was going to do it anyway. Not clear what this means in the medium or long term for NI and Unioist politics and Brexit, but there is a chance the NI Executive will collapse and the UK Government will have to impose direct rule once again.

Maybe there is a plan to all this, or its just a chaotic clusterfuck.