Of lags and lagging

Yesterday, for the first time since March 2020, there were no COVID deaths in the UK.

Yay.

So, we should accelerate the unlocking?

No.

What we have learned is that there are lags: lags between infections rising and hospitlaisations and a further lag between hospitalisations and deaths.

That there are no deaths now is reflecting the infection rate in the last two weeks of April. The rise in infections will not see a potential rise in death to between four and six weeks.

This is what we, as a country, should have learned. BUt the hospitality industry is screaming for easing before 21st June.

There may not be a third wave, or there might. In not changing course now makes it more likely.

Its not that I like lockdowns, but I dislike needless deaths much, much more. Maybe the naysayers and Brexiteers don't think 152,000 deaths, so far, is too many after all. And their desire for a fancy meal in a restaurant of a trip to the villa in Spain is more important.