20 days

As we are past mid-summer, or mid-winter if you are in the southern hemisphere, the year is getting on.

This is also true of the year in politics.

The Conservative Party leadership election result will be announced on 23rd July.

May will attend her last PMQs on the 24th, then tenders her resignation to the Queen.

Possibly, the Queen will then invite the winner to become the new PM.

Even if that happens, which is far from certain, then on the 25th, Parliament goes on recess until September 3rd.

Then it is conference season.

And then October.

And Brexit is due the 31st of October.

In short, Parliament will sit for just 20 days with the new PM before the UK is due to leave the EU. 20 days in which to enact either plan A, B or whatever.

Maybe, you can see the problem in this.

Johnson's plan A is to go to the EU and ask to reopen the WA.

The EU have said for more then 6 months that this will not happen. It is even written into the WA that the Government that Hunt at least was part of, that this cannot happen.

The EU is a euphemism for something far more complicated. The body that controls Brexit for the EU is the EU Commission, not the 27 heads of state of the members. And the Commission only meets about once every two months, and a decision to reopen the WA would take place, even if they were to think it a good idea, over two meetings. So, no time for the EU to decide what the terms of reference of a potential reopening would be, and to task a team to carry out the negotiations. Even if there were an appetite for it.

And there isn't.

There will be a crisis, may a constitutional one, maybe a major one in either July or October, with possibly the Queen deciding if the Conservative Leader should be offered to lead a Government, or not.

If it is clear that the new Leader has as a policy that in the event of there being no renegotiation by the EU on the WA and that the only course was no deal, then maybe a dozen or more Conservative MPs and Ministers, probably more, would resign the party whip. Currently the Conservatives have a working majority of 5 if the DUP vote with them, a by election coming up, followed by resignations could mean the new leader having no working majority at all, and unable to get any kind of hard or no deal Brexit through the House.

The House would see if the other parties could cobble together a "rainbow alliance" under, maybe Corbyn, or someone else.

If not, an election and a referendum.

But tat the same time the clock is ticking and Brexit happens unless there is an extension and the UK has to request it and the EU allow it. But if there is no PM then who, legally, could request such an extension? The Queen?

And the request would have to be made at least a week before the 31st, so that legislation could be past in the House, though it is possible that the UK could leave, or stay in the EU as a matter of international law, but not domestic law, as it seems more than likely no Brexit legislation could be passed, not with both potential leaders saying that they would not request an extension.

Maybe the Commons could?