Sunday, 30 June 2019

Some home truths

The EU doesn't want the UK to leave.

The UK is a large economy, and it leaving will weaken the EU.

But the EU is stronger than any one member, and if a member states wants to leave, the EU will put measures in place and get on with the long term planning.

Planning for no deal Brexit is not complete by the EU, but it is far more advanced than the UK's, and so now just wants the UK to make a decision as to what it is going to do.

The EU and UK negotiated a WA, the EU ratified it, and the UK went off to ratify it in Westminster, all this done in good faith by the EU.

That the UK has so far not ratified the UK is seen dimly by the EU, as it is clear that there is now no other clear path that has political agreement.

The EU understands the difficult position May was in, but also was alarmed at some of her speeches. And, at some point, the UK has to make a choice, one of three choices, and patience with the UK as it lurches from one crisis to another, without tackling the biggest one in the room; namely, what is it exactly, does the UK want from Brexit, and what relationship does it want with the EU.

If the UK can work that one out, then Brexit is simple.

But there is no one true Brexit.

Never was.

Now those who promised a quick and easy Brexit delivering the benefits without any of the responsibilities now try to say that Brexit was always going to be no deal, and be hard, and cost a lot of money.

And the Conservative Party is about to elect the biggest liar of them all, and this will not help the UK in any future talks with the EU, as the EU are no fools.

So, a new leader, maybe even a new PM, but one that has no electoral mandate to do anything, will go to the EU and say "let's talk". The EU will ask, "what about?" And the new PM will say "Brexit, the backstop". And the EU will say, "NON"

And what then, will plan B be for the new PM?

Fact is, many moderate Conservative MPs voted for Brexit in the form of the WA. It was the ERG that voted against the WA which is why the UK still hasn't left.

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