Brexit: the choices

No matter who is PM, there are just three choices.

1. Leaving the WA with a deal. The UK and EU have negotiated a WA, signed off by both, ratified by the EU, but the UK is now trying to wriggle out of it. A WA opens up a transition period, during which the actual future relationship will be agreed. Or should be agreed. The transition is due to end on the last day of 202.

2. Leave the EU with no deal. No deal means no deal. No deal means no transition, no side deals. Nothing. Just chaos.

3. Revoke A50. This would mean the UK remains a member state of the EU on current terms. If either 1 or 2 happen, then the UK can only go back to become a member by following the Article 49 process.

There is the possibilities of further extensions, but this would be for a reason. For either an election or a further referendum. The EU is unlikely to allow another extension just to kick the can further down the road. Even in the event of an extension or multiple extensions, there will just be the tree choices.

The EU has said that the WA cannot be reopened. The UK has agreed on that. Opening it for the UK would mean opening it for the EU27 and they have issues they would like to add, like Gibraltar for Spain, and so on.

The WA was based on the red lines of both sides.

Leaving the EU by leaving the SM and CU too means imposition of hard borders until other arrangements, if any, can be developed, agreed and implemented.

The backstop is a safety net to ensure that whatever happens at the end of the transition period, trade between NI and Eire will not be subject to a hard border. Either there is alignment on both sides, or there is a hard border.

The contenders for the Conservative Leadersip, have for the most part, not been truthful in what the UK's position is, and the impact of a no deal Brexit. Unless there is honesty, then the electorate will have unreal expectations. But only by lying can the contenders appeal to the members of the Party who will vote between the two who remain at the end of today.

No matter what lies they say, the snake oil they sell, there will be the three choices. Only.

Choose one, and accept the consequences. We cannot put off this choice forever.

Deal, no deal or no Brexit.